Table 2.
Projected number and change in number and percentage of skin cancer cases 2014‐2045 based on modelled scenarios of the change in sunbed use fraction after 2014 in Denmark compared to expected trend
| Projections based on potential structural interventions 2015 | Projections based on potential structural interventions 2015 | Sensitivity variations of Ban Scenario | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario Expected number of cases with applied parameters | 18 + age limit | Ban | EAPC0 | EAPC30 | LATLAG, 2 + 8 y | LATLAG, 10 + 20 y |
| CM cases | 146 395 | 146 395 | 83 147 | 202 392 | 146 395 | 146 395 |
| SCC cases | 150 505 | 150 505 | 91 494 | 201 370 | 150 505 | 150 505 |
| BCC cases | 809 681 | 809 681 | 498 822 | 1 063 463 | 809 681 | 809 681 |
| Avoided cases from intervention | ||||||
| ΔTotal CM | 1942 (1.3%) | 9161 (6.3%) | 4687 (5.6%) | 14 125 (7.0%) | 10 634 (7.3%) | 5850 (4%) |
| ΔTotal SCC | 113 (0.1%) | 17 351 (11.5%) | 9782 (10.7%) | 25 334 (12.6%) | 19 550 (13.0%) | 11 716 (7.78%) |
| ΔTotal BCC | 1675 (0.2%) | 55 375 (6.8%) | 29 089 (5.8%) | 74 332 (7.0%) | 58 328 (7.2%) | 33 686 (4.2%) |
BCC, basal cell carcinoma; CM, cutaneous melanoma; SCC, squamous cell carcinoma.
EAPC0 and EAPC30 correspond to number of years with the estimated annual percentage change in incidence of 4%. Remaining years are constant (0%).
Main scenarios apply EAPC 4% 2014‐2029 and 0% 2030‐45 and 2 + 18 y LAT+LAG time.