Figure 5.

Probability of exceedance ( $P[X⩾x]$) for the magnitude of the largest 100 heatwaves for CMIP5 model simulations for (a) fixed thresholds, (b) seasonally moving thresholds, and (c) fully moving hazard thresholds for +1, +1.5, +2, and +3 °C global warming compared to 1871–1890. The % different indicates the relative number of models whose distributions show a significant difference (Kolmogorov–Smirnov test,α=0.05) to the distributions for +1 °C warming. The dashed lines show multimodel median exceedance probabilities for a magnitude of 100 million km² days Δ °C.