Table A1.

Overview of the 19 CMIP5 Models Used in This Study

Model name	Modeling center
ACCESS1.0	Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) and
	Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Australia
ACCESS1.3	Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) and
	Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Australia
BCC‐CSM1.1 M	Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration
CanESM2	Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
CCSM4	National Center for Atmospheric Research
CESM1(BGC)	Community Earth System Model Contributors
CESM1(CAM5)	Community Earth System Model Contributors
CMCC‐CMs	Centro Euro‐Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
CNRM‐CM5	Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques / Centre Européen de
	Recherche et Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique
CSIRO‐Mk3.6.0	Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization in collabora‐
	tion with Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence
EC‐EARTH	European‐Earth‐System‐Model Consortium
GFDL‐CM3	NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
IPSL‐CM5A‐LR	Institut Pierre‐Simon Laplace
MIROC‐ESM	Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology, Atmosphere and
	Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), and National Institute
	for Environmental Studies
MPI‐ESM‐LR	Max‐Planck‐Institute for Meteorology
MPI‐ESM‐MR	Max‐Planck‐Institute for Meteorology
MRI‐CGCM3	Meteorological Research Institute
MRI‐ESM1	Meteorological Research Institute
NorESM1‐M	Norwegian Climate Centre

Note. For each model we use one ensemble member from the historical period and RCP8.5.