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. 2020 Feb 24;33(7):729–739. doi: 10.1111/tri.13580

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© 2020 The Authors. Transplant International published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Steunstichting ESOT

This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Calibration plots of all models (Panel a1 donor mortality model at 10, Panel a2 donor mortality at 20 years, Panel b recipient mortality model, Panel c graft loss model). The risk comparison between observed and predicted risk is grouped by quartiles of the predicted risk estimated by the models at ten and twenty years. 95% confidence intervals are added for the observed risks. Perfect agreement between observation and prediction is expressed by all dots lying on the diagonal. 95% confidence intervals intersecting the diagonal depict reasonable calibration of the model. Panel a1: calibration plot for donor mortality model at 10 years. Panel a2: calibration plot for donor mortality model at 20 years. Panel b: calibration plot for recipient mortality model. Panel c: calibration plot for graft loss model.