. 2020 Jan 13;147(4):931–939. doi: 10.1002/ijc.32846

Table 3.

Effect of alcohol consumption and physical activity on breast cancer for women at varying levels of risk based on 10‐year Tyrer–Cuzick predictions

Lifestyle factor	10‐year TC risk <3.0%					10‐year TC risk 3.0–4.9%					10‐year TC risk >5.0%
Lifestyle factor	Breast cancer					Breast cancer					Breast cancer
Alcohol (g/day)	n total	%	n all cases	Adj.¹ OR	[95% CI]	n total	%	n all cases	Adj.¹ OR	[95% CI]	n total	%	n all cases	Adj.¹ OR	[95% CI]
0	5,809	20.8	64	Reference		3,130	17.3	45	Reference		1,249	17.3	39	Reference
0.1–9.9	17,287	62.0	218	1.09	[0.82, 1.46]	11,144	61.7	199	1.34	[0.95, 1.90]	4,404	60.9	135	1.02	[0.70, 1.48]
10.0–40.0	4,806	17.2	70	1.13	[0.79, 1.62]	3,781	20.9	77	1.51	[1.02, 2.24]	1,580	21.8	52	1.16	[0.75, 1.81]
10 g/day	27,901	100	352	1.11	[0.97 1.27]	18,054	100	321	1.06	[0.93, 1.22]	7,233	100	226	1.07	[0.91 1.26]
Alcohol (g/day)	n total	%	ER+ cases² (n)	Adj.¹ OR	[95% CI]	n total	%	ER+ cases² (n)	Adj.¹ OR	[95% CI]	n total	%	ER+ cases² (n)	Adj.¹ OR	[95% CI]
0	5,801	20.8	45	Reference		3,126	17.3	34	Reference		1,244	17.3	29	Reference
0.1–9.9	17,266	62.0	165	1.21	[0.86, 1.71]	11,128	61.7	154	1.41	[0.95, 2.11]	4,385	60.9	102	1.05	[0.68, 1.61]
10.0–40.0	4,794	17.2	51	1.25	[0.82, 1.92]	3,777	21.0	61	1.63	[1.03, 2.56]	1,577	21.8	37	1.12	[0.67, 1.87]
10 g/day	27,860	100	261	1.16	[0.99, 1.35]	18,030	100	249	1.12	[0.97 1.30]	7,206	100	168	1.08	[0.90 1.30]
Physical activity	n total	%	n all cases	Adj.¹ OR	[95% CI]	n total	%	n all cases	Adj.¹ OR	[95% CI]	n total	%	n all cases	Adj.¹ OR	[95% CI]
Total activity (MET‐hr/day)
<40.0	9,647	34.6	106	Reference		6,816	37.8	121	Reference		2,778	38.4	82	Reference
40.0–44.9	9,594	34.4	143	1.40	[1.07, 1.82]	6,644	36.8	116	0.98	[0.75, 1.28]	2,653	36.7	86	1.09	[0.79, 1.51]
≥45.0	8,660	31.0	104	1.27	[0.95, 1.70]	4,594	25.4	83	1.18	[0.88, 1.58]	1,802	24.9	59	1.20	[0.84, 1.72]
5 MET‐hr/day increase	27,901	100	352	1.00	[0.92, 1.09]	18,054	100	321	1.04	[0.95 1.14]	7,233	100	226	1.05	[0.94, 1.18]
Moderate activity (hr/day)
<2.0	10,200	36.6	124	Reference		7,359	40.8	124	Reference		3,015	41.7	91	Reference
2.0–4.9	8,630	30.9	120	1.05	[0.81, 1.37]	5,865	32.5	116	1.12	[0.86, 1.46]	2,346	32.4	75	1.10	[0.79, 1.52]
≥5.0	9,071	32.5	108	1.11	[0.84, 1.46]	4,829	26.7	81	1.09	[0.81, 1.46]	1,872	25.9	60	1.17	[0.82, 1.66]
1 hr/day increase	27,901	100	352	1.00	[0.96, 1.04]	18,054	100	321	1.02	[0.98, 1.07]	7,233	100	226	1.03	[0.98, 1.08]
Vigorous activity (hr/day)
<0.2	18,437	66.1	225	Reference		12,217	67.7	216	Reference		4,981	68.9	156	Reference
≥0.2	9,465	33.9	127	1.14	[0.91 1.44]	5,837	32.3	105	1.08	[0.85 1.38]	2,252	31.1	70	0.99	[0.73, 1.34]
1 hr/day increase	27,901	100	352	1.08	[0.81, 1.45]	18,054	100	321	1.26	[0.93, 1.69]	7,233	100	226	0.84	[0.52, 1.37]
Recreational activity (hr/day)
<1.5	9,939	35.6	117	Reference		7,009	38.8	110	Reference		2,824	39.0	88	Reference
1.5–2.5	7,947	28.5	94	0.96	[0.72, 1.28]	5,224	28.9	96	1.16	[0.87 1.55]	2,149	29.7	72	1.13	[0.81, 1.56]
≥2.5	10,016	35.9	141	1.11	[0.85, 1.44]	5,821	32.3	115	1.26	[0.95, 1.66]	2,260	31.3	66	0.94	[0.67, 1.33]
1 hr/day increase	27,901	100	352	1.02	[0.97, 1.08]	18,054	100	321	1.03	[0.97, 1.10]	7,233	100	226	0.95	[0.87, 1.04]

Adjusted for age, BMI (<25.0, 25.0–29.9, ≥30.0 kg/m²), ethnicity (European ancestry yes/no), oral contraceptive use (ever, never), use of menopausal hormone therapy (never, ever), family history of breast cancer in mother or sister(s) (yes, no), age at menarche (<13, 13, 14, ≥15 years), parity and age at first birth (nulliparous; one or two births, age at first birth <26 years; one or two births, age at first birth ≥26 years; ≥3 births, age at first birth <26 years; ≥3 births, age at first birth ≥26 years), education level (secondary school, high school, university or higher, other) and menopausal status (post or premenopausal).

Breast cancer patients with ER− status were excluded from the analysis (n = 101).