Table 13.

Alternative reference cohort specification with falsification, part 1

	Baseline			Age 18–20 Reference
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Polio * Age 14–17 in 1916	$-0.{089}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	$-0.{083}^{\ast }$	$-0.{160}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	− 0.052	− 0.050	$-0.{117}^{\ast \ast }$
	(0.031)	(0.046)	(0.040)	(0.035)	(0.047)	(0.045)
Polio * Age 11–13 in 1916	− 0.081	− 0.069	− 0.134	− 0.043	− 0.041	− 0.091
	(0.090)	(0.076)	(0.118)	(0.093)	(0.080)	(0.130)
Polio * Age 0–10 in 1916	$-0.{171}^{\ast }$	$-0.{142}^{\ast }$	$-0.{268}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	− 0.134	− 0.125	$-0.{224}^{\ast \ast }$
	(0.090)	(0.079)	(0.090)	(0.091)	(0.080)	(0.102)
Placebo cohort	0.000	0.000	0.000	$0.{151}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	$0.{154}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	$0.{182}^{\ast }$
	(.)	(.)	(.)	(0.052)	(0.052)	(0.099)
Birth year cohort FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
State 1940 FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Birth state FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Birth state trend	No	Yes	No	No	Yes	No
1916 Economic controls	No	No	Yes	No	No	Yes
Cohort schooling laws	No	No	Yes	No	No	Yes
Reference cohort	Age 18–21	Age 18–21	Age 18–21	Age 19—20	Age 19–21	Age 19–21
N	166,613	166,613	166,555	166,613	166,613	166,555
Adj $R^2$	0.079	0.080	0.079	0.079	0.080	0.079

Specifications 1 to 3 are the specifications presented in the main analysis and use the reference birth cohort is ages 18 to 21 in 1916 (birth years 1895/1898). Specifications 4 to 6 use a reference cohort ages 19 to 21 and persons aged 18 in 1916 are in the “Placebo Cohort.”

Results reported are for white males. Years of education are top coded at 17 years. Age cohorts interacted with polio correspond to birth years 1899/1902, 1903/1905, and 1906/1916. Standard errors are clustered by state of birth and are in parentheses. 1916 Economic Controls are controls interacted with age cohort dummies. These variables include 1916 state level doctors per capita, education expenditures per capita, log manufacturing wages per earner, and log population. Cohort Schooling Laws included proxies for the age of school entry, age of school exit, and age of work permit that varies by state of birth and by year of birth.

${}^{\ast }$ $p<0.10$, ${}^{\ast \ast }$ $p<0.05$, ${}^{\ast \ast \ast }$ $p<0.01$