Table 2.
Quantifying the short-term economic impact of fear of contagion on China’s economy using the checklist.
| (in billions) | Economic impact |
Data sources | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimates | Lower bound | Upper bound | ||
| Behavioral impact on business | ||||
| Change in consumption behavior | ($105.94) | ($102.73) | ($109.14) | |
| Restaurant revenue change | ($101.84) | ($108.25) | 8 | |
| Cinema revenue change | ($0.89) | ($0.89) | 9,10 | |
| Life disruptions | ($96.27) | ($13.36) | ($179.17) | |
| Decreased public transportation utilization | ||||
| Train revenue change | ($0.92) | ($28.29) | 13 | |
| Long-distance bus revenue change | ($2.08) | ($63.95) | ||
| Ferry revenue change | ($2.57) | ($79.14) | ||
| Air revenue change | ($7.78) | ($7.78) | 12 | |
| Impact on business continuity | ||||
| restricted travel | ($80.36) | ($80.36) | ($80.36) | |
| Tourism (including hotels) | ($80.36.) | ($80.36) | ||
| Total | ||||
| in US dollars | ($282.56) | ($196.45) | ($368.66) | |
| in RMB | (¥ 2018.26) | (¥1,403.2) | (¥2633.31) | |
RMB indicates Renminbi.