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. 2020 Jul 28;76(5):696–709.e1. doi: 10.1053/j.ajkd.2020.07.005

Figure 4.

Figure 4

Continuous kidney replacement therapy (CKRT) shortages by state during the initial wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic; worst-case scenario. Estimates were model-generated. Group (1) represents all states projected to encounter a CKRT shortage, where CKRT capacity is below the 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of CKRT demand; group (2), states that may encounter a CKRT shortage, where CKRT capacity is within the 95% UI of CKRT demand; group (3), states not anticipated to encounter a CKRT shortage, where CKRT capacity is above the 95% UI of CKRT demand. The worst-case scenario projected by the model is obtained when the input parameters are varied simultaneously as follows: (1) incidence of acute kidney injury stage 3 requiring dialysis (AKI 3D) requiring CKRT among hospitalized patients with COVID-19: 6.9%; (2) time from hospitalization to AKI 3D: 5 days; (3) duration of CKRT: 9 days; (4) non–COVID-19 CKRT demand multiplier during the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: 0.75; (5) prevalence of AKI 3D among intensive care unit patients pre–COVID-19: 6.6%; and (6) CKRT capacity multiplier: 1.25.