Table 3.

Clinical and resource utilization outcomes for a model of COVID-19 disease and testing in Massachusetts

	PCR tests per simulation day, mean	PCR tests, total	Hospital bed-days		ICU bed-days		Cumulative self- isolation days
			Cumulative	Peak	Cumulative	Peak
Slowing scenario (June 1, 2020 Re 0.9)
PCR-severe-only	2,900	521,300	139,100	2,700	88,500	1,300	-
Self-screen	2,900	520,800	122,700	2,800	74,700	1,200	3,689,700
PCR-any-symptom	4,900	877,900	105,000	2,800	65,500	1,200	1,836,400
PCR-all	35,200	6,337,500	100,200	2,800	61,500	1,200	2,012,900
PCR-all-repeat	192,500	34,643,400	88,500	2,600	55,400	1,200	2,378,500
Intermediate scenario (June 1, 2020 Re 1.3)
PCR-severe-only	2,900	529,800	247,800	2,700	148,400	1,300	-
Self-screen	2,900	524,900	185,900	2,800	113,500	1,200	6,285,300
PCR-any-symptom	5,700	1,032,100	138,500	2,800	84,300	1,200	2,717,000
PCR-all	36,200	6,522,700	130,400	2,800	81,900	1,200	2,843,800
PCR-all-repeat	193,400	34,811,600	98,600	2,600	60,900	1,200	2,895,100
Surging scenario (June 1, 2020 Re 2.0)
PCR-severe-only	3,100	551,000	612,400	6,200	364,300	3,600	-
Self-screen	3,000	546,100	539,100	5,000	313,200	3,000	19,510,600
PCR-any-symptom	12,600	2,267,100	408,300	3,600	236,700	2,100	9,600,800
PCR-all	45,000	8,094,300	397,000	3,500	226,300	2,000	9,713,600
PCR-all-repeat	203,300	36,591,000	204,600	2,600	119,000	1,200	7,674,100

Abbreviations: PCR, Polymerase chain reaction; ICU, Intensive care unit; R_e, Effective reproduction number

Includes events occurring during the 180-day horizon between simulated days May 1, 2020 and November 1, 2020. PCR tests, hospital bed-days, ICU bed-days, and self-isolation days are rounded to the nearest 100. In-text results describing percentages are calculated from unrounded results. Cumulative self-isolation days are estimated in addition to the PCR-severe-only strategy.