Table 1. Model parameters.
| Parameter | Ireland | England & Wales | Distribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability of having a caesarean section for 1st baby | 0.33 | 0.28 | N/A* | Euro- Peristat 2018 [7] |
| Probability of having a CS after previous vaginal birth | 0.20** | 0.24 | N/A* | |
| Probability of having a vaginal birth after previous CS (VBAC) | 0.22** | 0.27 | N/A* | |
| Cost of uncomplicated CS | €3,272 | £3,200 | Gamma | HSE/NHS [8,9] |
| Cost of vaginal birth | €2,489 | £2,478 | Gamma | |
| Probability of having 0 children | 0.18 | 0.18 | Beta | CSO/ONS [12,15] |
| Probability of having 1 child | 0.13 | 0.18 | Beta | |
| Probability of having 2 children | 0.31 | 0.37 | Beta | |
| Probability of having 3 children | 0.23 | 0.17 | Beta | |
| Probability of having 4 or more children | 0.14 | 0.10 | Beta | |
| Mean (SD) age when having baby 1 | 30.4 (5.5) | 28.8 (5.9) | Normal | CSO/ONS [11,13,14,16] |
| Mean (SD) age when having baby 2 | 32.6 (4.9) | 31 (5.5) | Normal | |
| Mean (SD) age when having baby 3 | 34.0 (4.5) | 32 (5.2) | Normal | |
| Mean (SD) age when having baby 4 | 34.5 (4.6) | 33 (5.0) | Normal | |
| Cohort size*** | 29,204 | 325,315 | N/A | CSO/ONS [13,16–20] |
* Parameter uncertainty examined using deterministic sensitivity analysis rather than Monte Carlo simulation
** Data from Northern Ireland
*** adjusted for multiple pregnancy and cumulative mortality rate, N/A Not applicable, SD Standard Deviation; CS caesarean section, HSE Health Service Executive, NHS National Health Service, CSO Central Statistics Office (Ireland), ONS Office of National Statistics (UK)