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. 2020 Jun 22;9:e57149. doi: 10.7554/eLife.57149

Table 1. Mean incubation period, serial interval and pre-symptomatic transmission.

Incubation periods are based on the gamma estimates because these are the most convenient for taking the covariation of serial intervals and incubation periods into account (done throughout the table). 95% CIs are provided in brackets.

Without intermediates Incubation (days) Serial interval (days) Mean difference (days) Portion pre-symptomatic(-)
Singapore (all) 5.99 (4.97, 7.14) 4.0 (2.73, 5.57) 1.99 0.74
Singapore (early) 5.91 (4.50,7.64) 1.91 0.742
Singapore (late) 6.06 (4.70, 7.67 ) 2.06 0.744
Tianjin (all) 8.68 (7.72, 9.7) 5.0 (3.82, 6.12) 3.68 0.81
Tianjin (early) 6.88 (5.97,7.87) 1.88 0.72
Tianjin (late) 12.4 (11.1,13.7) 7.4 0.96
Account for intermediates
Singapore r=0.05 4.91 4.17 (2.44, 5.89) 0.77 0.53
Singapore r=0.1 4.43 0.26 0.46
Singapore r=0.15 4.12 −0.05 0.41
Singapore r=0.2 3.89 −0.28 0.38
Tianjin r=0.05 7.54 4.31 (2.91, 5.72) 3.23 0.79
Tianjin r=0.1 6.89 2.58 0.74
Tianjin r=0.15 6.30 1.99 0.67
Tianjin r=0.2 5.91 1.6 0.64