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. 2020 May 22;35(7):619–630. doi: 10.1007/s10654-020-00636-1

Table 1.

Overview of the four strategies of dealing with treatment initation after baseline

Strategy Estimand Example Estimators Key assumptions
Ignore treatment Risk of the event, regardless of treatment Risk of cardiovascular events where some patients will initiate statins according to routine-care prescriptions Survival model for T, do not censor at V Treatment assignment policy in application setting similar to development data
Composite Risk of the event or treatment initiation Risk of a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction and treatment with revascularisation (PCI or CABG) Survival model for min(TV) Treatment assignment policy in application setting similar to development data
While untreated Risk of the event occurring before treatment is started Risk of dying while on the waiting list for a liver transplant Competing risks methods Treatment assignment policy in application setting similar to development data
Hypothetical Risk of the event if treatment were never started Risk of a natural pregnancy without IVF treatment Survival model for T, censor at V or include treatment as time-dependent covariate in the model and set to 0 when predicting Exchangeability, consistency and positivity

T time to event of interest; V time to start of treatment; PCI percutaneous coronary intervention; CABG coronary artery bypass grafting; IVF in vitro fertilization