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. 2020 Jul 30;11:3799. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-17528-3

Fig. 3. Comparison of simulated and observed dynamics of infection throughout trials of ISTp.

Fig. 3

Figure shows observed PCR prevalence throughout successive screens during pregnancy (dots with error bars representing 95% CIs). Pink areas show the 95% CI for PCR prevalence throughout pregnancy in the absence of intervention. Red datapoints indicate observed prevalence at enrolment in primigravidae to which the model is calibrated for each trial, the remaining datapoints, marked in blue, represents dynamics the model aims to replicate, with sharp drops in prevalence corresponding to ISTp rounds. Blue areas show the 95% CIs generated by the posterior distribution of the fitted model in each scenario (see Supplementary Methods for full details) with blue lines representing the posterior median PCR prevalence. Note for the trial in Ghana only primi- and secundigravidae were recruited but the simulated output is still shown for completeness.