Table 2:
Linear temperature trends [K decade−1] with 95% confidence intervals for different datasets and periods. Trends are calculated from monthly mean data except for the Met Office dataset where 6-month averages are used. Confidence intervals for the CCMI multi-model mean are based on the standard deviation of temperature trends across the different simulations. For the satellite datasets, confidence intervals are based on the uncertainty in the linear regression fit accounting for the effective number of degrees of freedom in each time series (Santer et al., 2000). Note the confidence intervals are largest for the Met Office dataset because six times fewer data points are used compared to the other records. The Met Office SSU dataset is only available up to 2006 and hence trends are not calculated for 1998–2016.
| MSU4 (~13–22 km) | SSU1 (~25–35 km) | SSU2 (~35–45 km) | SSU3 (~40–50 km) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1979–2005 | 1979–1997 | 1998–2016 | 1979–2005 | 1979–1997 | 1998–2016 | 1979–2005 | 1979–1997 | 1998–2016 | 1979–2005 | 1979–1997 | 1998–2016 | |
| CCMI | −0.25 ± 0.12 | −0.37 ± 0.14 | −0.02 ± 0.07 | −0.50 ± 0.12 | −0.66 ± 0.14 | −0.34 ± 0.14 | −0.70 ± 0.16 | −0.92 ± 0.12 | −0.49 ± 0.16 | −0.88 ± 0.23 | −1.16 ± 0.17 | −0.58 ± 0.21 |
| Met Office | -- | -- | -- | −0.55 ± 0.35 | −0.82 ± 0.25 | -- | −0.50 ± 0.50 | −0.74 ± 0.77 | -- | −1.00 ± 0.86 | −1.61 ± 0.50 | -- |
| NOAA | −0.28 ± 0.14 | −0.48 ± 0.17 | −0.07 ± 0.14 | −0.64 ± 0.17 | −0.90 ± 0.14 | −0.25 ± 0.10 | −0.72 ± 0.25 | −1.07 ± 0.26 | −0.40 ± 0.11 | −0.80 ± 0.29 | −1.15 ± 0.53 | −0.46 ± 0.11 |
| RSS | −0.28 ± 0.12 | −0.45 ± 0.15 | −0.08 ± 0.13 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| UAH | −0.34 ± 0.12 | −0.51 ± 0.15 | −0.09 ± 0.13 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |