Table 2.
Comparisons of observed actual prevalence (%) in 2015–2016 vs our 2007 study projected prevalence for 2015, and projections for 2015, 2020 and 2030 prevalence (%) of obesity, severe obesity and combined overweight and obesity among adults (age ≥20 years), children (age 6–11 years) and adolescents (age 12–19 years) in the US by gender using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999–2016 dataa,b
| Gender | Actual prevalence in 2015–16 | Our 2007 study projection for 2015c | Annual increase rated |
Projected 2015d |
Projected 2020d |
Projected 2030d |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | SE | P | Prevalence (95% CI) | Prevalence (95% CI) | Prevalence (95% CI) | ||||||||||
| Adults (age ≥20) | |||||||||||||||
| Obesity (BMI≥30kg/m2) | All | 39.8 | 40.8 | 0.57 | 0.09 | *** | 38.5 | 36.6 | 40.4 | 40.3 | 38.5 | 44.2 | 47.1 | 42.1 | 52.0 |
| Men | 38.0 | 37.3 | 0.61 | 0.10 | *** | 36.6 | 34.4 | 38.7 | 39.6 | 36.4 | 42.8 | 45.7 | 40.3 | 51.2 | |
| Women | 41.5 | 46.4 | 0.47 | 0.11 | ** | 39.4 | 37.0 | 41.8 | 41.8 | 38.1 | 45.4 | 46.5 | 40.1 | 52.9 | |
| Severe obesity (BMI≥40kg/m2) | All | 7.6 | 7.4 | 0.18 | 0.04 | ** | 7.3 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 12.4 |
| Men | 5.6 | 5.3 | 0.17 | 0.04 | ** | 5.4 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 10.5 | |
| Women | 9.5 | 9.5 | 0.22 | 0.06 | ** | 9.4 | 7.9 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 9.1 | 16.2 | |
| Combined overweight & obesity (BMI≥25kg/m2) | All | 71.7 | 74.7 | 0.45 | 0.08 | *** | 71.3 | 69.4 | 73.1 | 73.5 | 70.8 | 76.2 | 78.0 | 73.5 | 82.4 |
| Men | 74.7 | 76.8 | 0.40 | 0.09 | ** | 74.9 | 72.6 | 77.2 | 76.9 | 73.6 | 80.3 | 81.0 | 75.4 | 86.5 | |
| Women | 68.9 | 73.6 | 0.48 | 0.11 | ** | 67.8 | 65.3 | 70.3 | 70.2 | 66.5 | 73.9 | 74.9 | 68.6 | 81.3 | |
| Children (Age 6–11) | |||||||||||||||
| Obesity (BMI ≥95th percentile) | All | 20.4 | 22.7 | 0.27 | 0.11 | 19.8 | 17.7 | 22.0 | 21.2 | 18.0 | 24.4 | 23.9 | 18.5 | 29.3 | |
| Boys | 22.8 | 23.3 | 0.25 | 0.18 | 20.9 | 17.7 | 24.1 | 22.2 | 17.4 | 27.0 | 24.6 | 16.5 | 32.8 | ||
| Girls | 17.9 | 21.8 | 0.45 | 0.24 | 20.4 | 16.0 | 24.9 | 22.7 | 16.1 | 29.3 | 27.2 | 16.1 | 38.3 | ||
| Severe obesityb | All | 7.1 | – | 0.15 | 0.10 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 13.4 | |
| Boys | 7.9 | – | 0.13 | 0.11 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 13.4 | ||
| Girls | 6.3 | – | 0.17 | 0.09 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 13.7 | ||
| Combined overweight & obesity (BMI ≥ 85th percentile) | All | 36.5 | – | 0.24 | 0.21 | 35.3 | 31.7 | 38.9 | 36.5 | 31.0 | 42.0 | 38.8 | 29.4 | 48.3 | |
| Boys | 38.2 | – | 0.05 | 0.23 | 33.8 | 30.0 | 37.6 | 34.1 | 28.1 | 40.0 | 34.6 | 24.2 | 45.0 | ||
| Girls | 34.8 | – | 0.61 | 0.28 | 38.3 | 33.1 | 43.5 | 41.4 | 33.7 | 49.1 | 47.5 | 34.5 | 64.4 | ||
| Adolescents (age 12–19) | |||||||||||||||
| Obesity (BMI ≥95th percentile) | All | 21.8 | 23.6 | 0.42 | 0.11 | ** | 22.3 | 19.3 | 25.3 | 24.4 | 20.2 | 28.6 | 28.6 | 21.8 | 35.4 |
| Boys | 21.8 | 23.7 | 0.46 | 0.14 | * | 23.2 | 19.3 | 27.2 | 25.5 | 19.9 | 31.1 | 30.1 | 21.1 | 39.1 | |
| Girls | 21.7 | 21.0 | 0.35 | 0.14 | * | 20.9 | 17.2 | 24.6 | 22.6 | 17.3 | 28.0 | 26.2 | 17.6 | 34.7 | |
| Severe obesityb | All | 8.9 | – | 0.28 | 0.07 | ** | 9.6 | 7.7 | 11.4 | 10.9 | 8.3 | 13.6 | 13.7 | 9.4 | 18.0 |
| Boys | 10.3 | – | 0.24 | 0.09 | * | 9.4 | 7.0 | 11.8 | 10.6 | 7.2 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 18.6 | |
| Girls | 7.4 | – | 0.26 | 0.09 | * | 9.1 | 6.7 | 11.5 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 13.8 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 18.5 | |
| Combined overweight and obesity (BMI ≥85th percentile) | All | 41.3 | – | 0.49 | 0.13 | ** | 38.1 | 34.8 | 41.5 | 40.6 | 35.8 | 45.4 | 45.5 | 37.5 | 53.5 |
| Boys | 37.9 | – | 0.61 | 0.17 | ** | 40.2 | 36.2 | 44.2 | 43.2 | 37.4 | 49.1 | 49.3 | 39.6 | 59.1 | |
| Girls | 44.9 | – | 0.45 | 0.20 | 37.6 | 32.5 | 42.8 | 39.9 | 32.4 | 47.4 | 44.4 | 32.1 | 56.7 | ||
P < 0.001, **P < 0.01, *P < 0.05.
The World Health Organization (WHO) defines adult overweight and obesity and the National Health, Lung, and Blood Institute classified extreme obesity by using BMI cut points of 25, 30 and 40 kg/m2, respectively.
Childhood overweight (BMI ≥ 85th percentile), obesity (BMI ≥ 95th percentile) and severe obesity (BMI ≥ 120% of the 95th percentile, or BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2, whichever was lower) were defined by the age-sex-specific BMI percentile in the 2000 CDC growth charts.
Our old estimation in obesity, overweight and severe obesity in 2015 were from our previous projection in 2007 (Wang and Beydoun5 which used NHANES 1976 to 2004 data and linear regression models with year per age, gender, ethnic stratum as a function of time as the independent variable.
Linear meta-regression models with year as the sole predictor was used to estimate annual increase rate and project prevalence proportions for the years 2020 and 2030 overall and for each stratum by gender and ethnic groups based on NHANES 1999–2014 data.