Table 1.
Model parameters and their distributions
| Description | Age group | Source | |||||
| 0 y to 4 y | 5 y to 19 y | 20 y to 49 y | 50 y to 64 y | ≥65 y | |||
| Transmission probability per contact during presymptomatic stage | 0.0575, 0.0698 | 0.0575, 0.0698 | 0.0575, 0.0698 | 0.0575, 0.0698 | 0.0575, 0.0698 | Calibrated to R0 = 2.5 | |
| Incubation period (days) | Log-normal (mean: 5.2, SD: 0.1) | Log-normal (mean: 5.2, SD: 0.1) | Log-normal (mean: 5.2, SD: 0.1) | Log-normal (mean: 5.2, SD: 0.1) | Log-normal (mean: 5.2, SD: 0.1) | (13) | |
| Asymptomatic period (days) | Gamma (shape: 5, scale: 1) | Gamma (shape: 5, scale: 1) | Gamma (shape: 5, scale: 1) | Gamma (shape: 5, scale: 1) | Gamma (shape: 5, scale: 1) | Derived from ref. 12 | |
| Presymptomatic period (days) | Gamma (shape: 1.058, scale: 2.174) | Gamma (shape: 1.058, scale: 2.174) | Gamma (shape: 1.058, scale: 2.174) | Gamma (shape: 1.058, scale: 2.174) | Gamma (shape: 1.058, scale: 2.174) | Derived from ref. 1 | |
| Infectious period from onset of symptoms (days) | Gamma (shape: 2.768, scale: 1.1563) | Gamma (shape: 2.768, scale: 1.1563) | Gamma (shape: 2.768, scale: 1.1563) | Gamma (shape: 2.768, scale: 1.1563) | Gamma (shape: 2.768, scale: 1.1563) | Derived from ref. 14 | |
| Proportion of symptomatic cases with mild symptoms | 0.95 | 0.9 | 0.85 | 0.60 | 0.20 | (2, 3) | |