Table 2.

Time-dependent AUROCs of the 4-, 6-, and 8-variable equations for predicting 2- and 5-year ESRD development in patients with CKD stages G3–G5.

Model	Original equation AUROC (95% CI)	Recalibration AUROC (95% CI)	P-value
2-year risk prediction
8-variable	0.870 (0.862, 0.879)	0.870 (0.862, 0.879)	0.30
6-variable	0.868 (0.859, 0.877)	0.868 (0.859, 0.877)	0.30
4-variable	0.868 (0.860, 0.877)	0.868 (0.860, 0.877)	0.60
5-year risk prediction
8-variable	0.833 (0.822, 0.843)	0.833 (0.823, 0.843)	0.40
6-variable	0.834 (0.823, 0.844)	0.834 (0.823, 0.844)	0.99
4-variable	0.834 (0.824, 0.845)	0.834 (0.824, 0.845)	0.99

AUROC area under the receiver operating characteristic, ESRD end-stage renal disease, CKD chronic kidney disease.