Table 4.

Comparing the performances among models for predicting 2- and 5-year ESRD development in patients with CKD stages G3-G5 using Brier scores.

Model	Brier score (95% CI)	Model comparison	P-value
2-year risk prediction
8-variable	0.116 (0.105, 0.126)	6-variable vs 8-variable	< 0.01
6-variable	0.111 (0.101, 0.122)	4-variable vs 8-variable	< 0.01
4-variable	0.111 (0.101, 0.121)	4-variable vs 6-variable	0.25
5-year risk prediction
8-variable	0.168 (0.152, 0.184)	6-variable vs 8-variable	< 0.01
6-variable	0.165 (0.149, 0.180)	4-variable vs 8-variable	< 0.01
4-variable	0.165 (0.149, 0.180)	4-variable vs 6-variable	0.24

ESRD end-stage renal disease, CKD chronic kidney disease.