TABLE 7.
Performance Characteristics of the M-CHAT Within the Entire Cohort and Subgroups in Predicting Later Diagnosis of ASD
| Group | Sensitivity % (95% CI) | Specificity % (95% CI) | PPV % (95% CI) | NPV % (95 % CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entire cohort (n = 26 364) | 33.1 (28.3–38.1) | 97.8 (97.6–97.9) | 17.8 (15.0–20.8) | 99.0 (98.9–99.1) |
| Race and ethnicity | ||||
| White (n = 21 762) | 30.1 (24.8–35.7) | 98.1 (97.9–98.2) | 17.1 (13.9–20.7) | 99.1 (98.9–99.2) |
| Nonwhite (n = 3638) | 43.1 (31.4–55.3) | 96.4 (95.8–97.0) | 19.6 (13.7–26.7) | 98.8 (13.7–26.7) |
| Comparison | P = .04 | P < .001 | P = .47 | P = .19 |
| Sex | ||||
| Male (n = 13 609) | 34.8 (29.4–40.5) | 97.4 (97.1–97.6) | 22.9 (19.1–27.0) | 98.5 (98.3–98.7) |
| Female (n = 12 754) | 26.6 (17.3–37.7) | 98.2 (98.0–98.4) | 8.4 (5.3–12.6) | 99.5 (99.4–99.6) |
| Comparison | P = .17 | P < .001 | P < .001 | P < .001 |
| M-CHAT completion | ||||
| 18- or 24-mo (n = 15 448) | 27.6 (21.9–33.9) | 97.9 (97.7–98.2) | 16.8 (13.1–20.9) | 98.9 (98.7–99.1) |
| 18- and 24-mo (n = 10 916) | 41.3 (33.4–49.7) | 97.5 (97.2–97.8) | 18.9 (14.8–23.6) | 99.2 (99.0–99.3) |
| Comparison | P = .006 | P = .03 | P = .46 | P = .03 |
| Insurance | ||||
| Medicaid (n = 5022) | 27.5 (17.5–39.6) | 97.8 (97.3–98.2) | 14.6 (9.0–21.9) | 99.0 (98.7–99.2) |
| Private (n = 14 685) | 37.0 (30.4–43.9) | 97.9 (97.6–98.1) | 20.1 (16.2–24.4) | 99.1 (98.9–99.2) |
| Comparison | P = .15 | P = .70 | P = .17 | P = .57 |
| SES | ||||
| High SES (n = 14 165) | 34.6 (27.2–42.5) | 97.8 (97.5–98.0) | 14.9 (11.5–19.0) | 99.2 (99.1–99.4) |
| Low SES (n = 11 700) | 32.6 (26.3–39.3) | 97.7 (97.5–98.0) | 21.3 (17.0–26.1) | 98.7 (98.5–98.9) |
| Comparison | P = .68 | P = .91 | P = .03 | P < .001 |