Table 1.

Parameters estimation

Parameter	Mean	STD	95% CI	Sources
The baseline scenario $I_1(0)=41$
u	13.7104	0.0158	[13.7099, 13.7108]	Estimated
$\sigma$	2.4370	0.0034	[2.4369, 2.4371]	Estimated
$\beta$	0.6866	0.0003	[0.6865, 0.6867]	Estimated
$b_1$	0.01	0.0000007	[0.0100, 0.0100]	Estimated
${\gamma }_1$	0.0894	0.0003	[0.0893, 0.0895]	Estimated
${\delta }_1$	0.0605	0.0002	[0.0604, 0.0606]	Estimated
The second scenario $I_1(0)=123$
u	9.5819	0.0739	[9.5666, 9.5972]	Estimated
$\sigma$	3.1972	0.0047	[3.1962, 3.1981]	Estimated
$\beta$	0.5785	0.0001	[0.5785, 0.5785]	Estimated
$b_1$	0.01	0.000005	[0.01,0.01]	Estimated
${\gamma }_1$	0.0905	0.0004	[0.0905, 0.0906]	Estimated
${\delta }_1$	0.0576	0.0001	[0.0575, 0.0576]	Estimated
The third scenario $I_1(0)=164$
u	9.3038	0.1796	[9.2666, 9.3410]	Estimated
$\sigma$	3.4477	0.0050	[3.4467, 3.4488]	Estimated
$\beta$	0.5637	0.0043	[0.5629, 0.5646]	Estimated
$b_1$	0.01	0.000001	[0.01, 0.01]	Estimated
${\gamma }_1$	0.0870	0.0051	[0.0860, 0.0881]	Estimated
${\delta }_1$	0.0566	0.0004	[0.0565, 0.0566]	Estimated

(a) The second scenario: the initial infectious people are twice higher than our baseline scenario value; (b) The third scenario: the initial infectious people are triple higher than our baseline scenario value