Table 3.
Estimation result of main regressions, dependent variable: excess deaths during the period January 1—April 30 2020, municipalities in Northern Italy
| Model (1) | Model (2) | Model (3) | Model (4) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate | (SE) | Estimate | (SE) | Estimate | (SE) | Estimate | (SE) | |
| Intercept | − 6.314*** | (1.834) | − 6.862*** | (1.717) | − 5.369** | (1.844) | − 6.254*** | (1.807) |
| PM2.5 | 0.128*** | (0.008) | 0.085*** | (0.009) | 0.089*** | (0.014) | 0.089*** | (0.014) |
| Female/Male | − 1.451** | (0.449) | − 0.726 | (0.427) | 0.213 | (0.426) | 0.180 | (0.422) |
| % Over 65 | 0.076*** | (0.006) | 0.074*** | (0.006) | 0.066*** | (0.006) | 0.065*** | (0.006) |
| Temperature | − 0.064*** | (0.007) | − 0.046*** | (0.007) | − 0.048*** | (0.011) | − 0.040*** | (0.010) |
| Pop. density | − 0.011 | (0.030) | − 0.099*** | (0.028) | − 0.005 | (0.029) | − 0.016 | (0.028) |
| % Ind. Land | − 0.009 | (0.006) | − 0.009 | (0.005) | − 0.008 | (0.005) | − 0.008 | (0.005) |
| % Small Ent | − 0.008 | (0.007) | − 0.017* | (0.007) | − 0.009 | (0.007) | − 0.011 | (0.007) |
| PC Income | − 0.199 | (0.166) | − 0.082 | (0.157) | − 0.385* | (0.173) | − 0.270 | (0.170) |
| % non-EU | 0.015 | (0.016) | 0.020 | (0.015) | − 0.018 | (0.016) | − 0.013 | (0.015) |
| % Univ. Stud. | 0.000 | (0.000) | 0.000 | (0.000) | 0.000 | (0.000) | 0.000 | (0.000) |
| PC Hospital Beds | 0.418 | (2.094) | − 1.001 | (2.056) | − 0.517 | (1.771) | − 0.746 | (1.769) |
| Dist. Airport | − 0.159*** | (0.028) | − 0.091*** | (0.026) | − 0.087* | (0.039) | − 0.068 | (0.035) |
| Regional fixed effects | ||||||||
| Lombardia | 0.784*** | (0.081) | 0.598*** | (0.139) | ||||
| Emilia-Romagna | 0.185* | (0.094) | − 0.013 | (0.147) | ||||
| Piemonte | − 0.024 | (0.080) | − 0.034 | (0.136) | ||||
| Veneto | − 0.823*** | (0.097) | − 0.894*** | (0.149) | ||||
| theta | 0.571 | 0.69 | 0.894 | 0.894 | ||||
| Observations | 4041 | 4041 | 4041 | 4041 | ||||
| AIC | 21,045 | 205,598 | 20,397 | 20,297 | ||||
| log-Likelihood | − 10,509 | − 10,281 | − 10,183 | − 10,129 | ||||
| Moran’s I Test [p value in parenthesis] | 0.276 [< 0.001] | 0.143 [< 0.001] | 0.005 [0.784] | 0.001 [0.596] | ||||
***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1