Table 2.
National Program Against Bacterial Resistance (PRAN) approval, intervention analysis of the series of costs, packaging, and DID. Real values from January 2009 to June 2015 and predictions from July 2015 to June 2016 with dummy variables V1 and V2.
| Serie | Total Costs (euros) | Total Packages | Total DID |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARIMA model | (0,1,2) (0,1,1)12 | (2,0,0) (2,1,0)12 | (1,1,2) (0,1,1)12 |
| AR1 | - | 0.340 *** | −0.423 *** |
| AR2 | - | 0.061 * | - |
| MA1 | 0.490 *** | - | −0.188 * |
| MA2 | 0.381 *** | - | −0.812 * |
| SAR1 | - | −0.446 ** | - |
| SAR2 | - | −0.463 *** | - |
| SMA1 | 0.754 *** | - | 0.772 * |
| V1 | −0.019 * | - | −0.015 * |
| V2 | - | −0.093 ** | - |
| Q test (p-value, delay 18) | 18.206 (0.252) | 18.934 (0.167) | 14.701 (0.399) |
| AIC | −7.138 | −7.309 | −7.374 |
| Residual sum of squares | 0.073 | 0.076 | 0.076 |
| Standard error of the regression | 0.020 | 0.017 | 0.015 |
| Effect on the series (calculations in Table A2) |
Savings of 7.96% from Jul. 2015 to Jun. 2016 |
Savings of 8.87% from Jul. 2015 to Jun. 2016 |
Savings of 0.779 DID (−4.51% from Jul. 2015 to Jun. 2016) |
Legend: (*) significant level equal to or less than 0.05; (**) significance level equal to or less than 0.01; (***) level of significance equal to or less than 0.001; ARIMA (integrated autoregressive moving average model); AR1 (first autoregressive term); AR2 (second autoregressive term; MA1 (first moving average term); MA2 (second moving average term); SAR1 (first seasonal autoregressive term); SAR2 (second seasonal autoregressive term); SMA1 (first seasonal moving average term); V1 (dummy variable that takes the value 1 in June 2013 and −1 in July 2013); V2 (dummy variable that takes the value 1 in June 2013 and −1 from July 2013 to June 2014); AIC ( information criterion of Akaike); DID (daily defined doses per thousand people). Source: Own elaboration from data provided by the Basque Government Pharmacy Department.