Table A1.
Savings from the introduction of RDL no. 16/2012 (predictions with the ARIMA models in Table 1).
| Series | Costs (euros) | Packages | DID | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Real Value | Prediction | Confidence Interval (80%) | Real Value | Prediction | Confidence Interval (80%) | Real Value | Prediction | Confidence Interval (80%) |
| Jun. 2013 | 994,437 * | 918,145 * | 843,114–993,176 | 125,760 * | 117,301 * | 109,310–125,474 | 1.286 * | 1.197 * | 1.111–1.283 |
| Jul. 2013 | 778,627 * | 894,975 * | 790,709–999,241 | 95,966 * | 106,961 * | 98,926–114,997 | 0.975 * | 1.112 * | 1.025–1.197 |
| Aug. 2013 | 677,717 | 716,160 | 598,665–833,655 | 84,092 * | 92,684 * | 84,118–101,350 | 0.882 | 0.940 | 0.849–1.030 |
| Sep. 2013 | 890,812 | 818,366 | 700,871–935,862 | 100,232 * | 106,253 * | 100,587–114,920 | 1.131 | 1.088 | 0.996–1.179 |
| Oct. 2013 | 1,022,801 | 1,039,945 | 922,450–1,157,440 | 115,925 * | 126,973 * | 118,307–135,640 | 1.269 | 1.295 | 1.204–1.387 |
| Nov. 2013 | 992,537 | 1,064,936 | 947,441–1,182,431 | 117,578 * | 131,980 * | 123,313–140,646 | 1.329 | 1.337 | 1.246–1.429 |
| Dec. 2013 | 1,185,331 | 1,080,010 | 962,515–1,197,506 | 129,174 * | 139,341 * | 130,675–148,007 | 1.500 | 1.412 | 1.320–1.503 |
| Jan. 2014 | 1,320,501 | 1,231,031 | 1,113,536–1,348,526 | 131,722 * | 149,125 * | 140,461–157,789 | 1.652 | 1.562 | 1.471–1.653 |
| Feb. 2014 | 1,051,123 | 1,112,522 | 995,027–1,230,018 | 106,900 * | 140,592 * | 131,928–149,255 | 1.366 | 1.456 | 1.365–1.548 |
| Mar. 2014 | 1,047,866 | 1,126,069 | 1,008,573–1,243,564 | 110,981 * | 143,465 * | 134,802–152,129 | 1.399 | 1.484 | 1.392–1.575 |
| Apr. 2014 | 956,060 | 1,047,480 | 929,984–1,164,975 | 105,361 * | 123,841 * | 115,177–132,505 | 1.246 | 1.283 | 1.192–1.374 |
| May 2014 | 954,021 | 1,033,550 | 916,055–1,151,046 | 108,572 * | 129,514 * | 120,851–138,178 | 1.233 | 1.318 | 1.227–1.410 |
| Jun. 2014 | 884,376 | 1,000,323 | 882,827–1,117,818 | 99,485 * | 122,447 * | 113,783–131,110 | 1.152 | 1.240 | 1.148–1.331 |
| Total (*) | 1,773,064 | 1,813,120 | 1,431,748 | 1,630,477 | 2.261 | 2.309 | |||
| Difference (*) | −40,056 | −198,729 | −0.048 | ||||||
| Variation (*) | −2.20% | −12.19% | −2.07% | ||||||
| Stockpiling effect (var. Jun. 2013) |
8.31% | 7.21% | 7.44% | ||||||
(*) Only statistically significant predictions are included in the calculation; RDL (Royal Decree-Law); DID (daily defined doses per thousand people). Source: Own elaboration based on data provided by the Basque Government Pharmacy Department.