Table A2.

Counterfactual analysis of the series of costs and packages by active substance. Real values from January 2009 to May 2013 and predictions from June 2013 to June 2014.

Active Substance	Cefditoren		Moxifloxacin		Doxycycline		Cloxacillin
Group	“watch”		“watch”		“access”		“access”
Chosen by	High cost (€43/recipe)		High cost (€24/recipe)		Low cost (€5/recipe)		Low cost (€4/recipe)
Included in RDL	No		No		Yes		Yes
Serie	Costs (euros)	Packages	Costs (euros)	Packages	Costs (euros)	Packages	Costs (euros)	Packages
ARIMA model	(0,0,1) (1,1,0)	(0,0,1) (1,1,0)	(0,0,1) (1,1,0)	(1,0,2) (1,1,0)	(2,0,0) (0,1,1)	(0,1,1) (0,1,1)	(2,0,0) (1,1,0)	(1,0,2) (1,1,0)
AR1	-	-	-	0.48345 *	0.29353 *	-	0.29846 *	0.773629 ***
AR2	-	-	-	-	0.37230 *	-	−0.34330 **	-
MA1	0.41060 **	0.42849 **	0.83520 ***	0.31378 *	-	−0.632895 ***	-	0.369473*
MA2	-	-	-	−0.40898 *	-	-	-	0.150730 *
SAR1	−0.53195 ***	−0.55235 ***	−0.65118 ***	−0.49804 **	-	-	−0.54423 **	−0.503722 *
SMA1	-	-	-	-	−0.56709 *	−0.400906 *	-	-
Q test (p-value, delay 18)	7.4520 (0.5962)	7.7591 (0.5586)	7.3600 (0.5997)	7.4616 (0.3824)	10.337 (0.2422)	7.8494 (0.5494)	10.721 (0.218)	8.6277 (0.2805)
AIC	−10.764	−10.130	−11.577	−10.929	−9.03q	−10.878	−8.825	−9.405
Residual sum of squares	0.0604	0.0595	0.0624	0.0605	0.0824	0.0557	0.0793	0.0655
Standard error of the regression	0.0472	0.0443	0.0511	0.0502	0.0712	0.0466	0.069	0.0583
Effect on the series (calculations of savings in Table A3)	not significant		not significant		not significant	Stockpiling effect of 7.63% Packaging reduction of 19.68% including Jun. 2013 to Jun. 2014 (last month with significant effect)	not significant	Stockpiling effect of 7.23% Packaging reduction of 23.62% including Jun. 2013 to Jun. 2014 (last month with significant effect)
Active Substance	Amoxicillin		Amoxicillin and Inhibitors		Azithromycin		Levofloxacin
Group	“access”		“access”		“watch”		“watch”
Chosen by	High prescription (23% of recipes)		High prescription (21% of recipes)		High prescription (12% of recipes)		High prescription (5% of recipes)
Included in RDL	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes
Serie	Costs (euros)	Packages	Costs (euros)	Packages	Costs (euros)	Packages	Costs (euros)	Packages
ARIMA model	(1,1,0) (1,1,0)	(1,0,0) (1,1,0)	(1,0,0) (1,1,0)	(0,0,1) (1,1,0)	(0,1,2) (0,1,1)	(0,1,2) (1,1,0)	(0,1,2) (1,1,0)	(0,0,1) (0,1,1)
AR1	0.75416 **	0.807218 ***	0.822603 ***	-	-	-	-	-
AR2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
MA1	-	-	-	0.524390 ***	−0.12776 *	−0.11887 *	0.44500 ***	0.61486 ***
MA2	-	-	-	-	−0.48812 **	−0.50298 *	0.04571 ***	-
SAR1	−0.57297 **	−0.365231 **	−0.358346 **	−0.55124 **	-	−0.55869 ***	−0.31785 ***	-
SMA1	-	-	-	-	−0.33576 *	-	-	−0.42197 **
Q test (p-value, delay 18)	7.6307 (0.5997)	13.476 (0.1422)	12.467 (0.1882)	12.416 (0.1909)	13.514 (0.0953)	14.477 (0.0942)	9.2410 (0.1845)	2.0625 (0.9904)
AIC	−10.895	−11.526	−11.094	−11.118	−9.646	−9.054	−8.016	−17.643
Residual sum of squares	0.0613	0.0650	0.0649	0.0646	0.0708	0.0696	0.0856	0.0545
Standard error of the regression	0.0495	0.0866	0.0848	0.0855	0.0917	0.0864	0.072	0.0387
Effect on the series (calculations in Table A2)	not significant	Stockpiling effect of 9.16% Packaging reduction of 26.79% including Jun. 2013 to Jun. 2014 (last month with significant effect)	not significant	Stockpiling effect of 8.40% Packaging reduction of 26.05% including Jun. 2013 to Jun. 2014 (last month with significant effect)	not significant		not significant

Legend: (*) significant level equal to or less than 0.05; (**) significance level equal to or less than 0.01; (***) level of significance equal to or less than 0.001; RDL (Royal Decree-Law); ARIMA (integrated autoregressive moving average model); AR1 (first autoregressive term); AR2 (second autoregressive term; MA1 (first moving average term), MA2 (second moving average term); SAR1 (first seasonal autoregressive term); SMA1 (first seasonal moving average term); AIC (Akaike reporting criterion). Source: Own elaboration from data provided by the Basque Government Pharmacy Department.