Table A3.
Saving of the RDL no. 16/2012 introduction by active substance (predictions with the ARIMA models in Table A2).
|
Series
Active Substance |
Packages
Doxycycline |
Packages
Cloxacillin |
||||
| Date | Real Value | Prediction | Confidence Interval (80%) | Real Value | Prediction | Confidence Interval (80%) |
| Jun. 2013 | 1410 | 1310 | 1217–1403 | 2475 | 2308 | 2160–2456 |
| Jul. 2013 | 1009 | 1302 | 1210–1,395 | 2371 | 2437 | 2398–2476 |
| Aug. 2013 | 802 | 1053 | 954–1151 | 2168 | 2441 | 2376–2506 |
| Sep. 2013 | 1211 | 1319 | 1215–1423 | 1985 | 2469 | 2383–2555 |
| Oct. 2013 | 1308 | 1628 | 1518–1737 | 1790 | 2431 | 2329–2533 |
| Nov. 2013 | 1342 | 1659 | 1545–1774 | 1641 | 2349 | 2233–2464 |
| Dec. 2013 | 1234 | 1543 | 1424–1662 | 1536 | 2281 | 2154–2407 |
| Jan. 2014 | 1425 | 1745 | 1621–1869 | 1544 | 2218 | 2081–2354 |
| Feb. 2014 | 1458 | 1794 | 1666–1923 | 1567 | 2230 | 2085–2375 |
| Mar. 2014 | 1490 | 1902 | 1769–2035 | 1565 | 2242 | 2089–2395 |
| Apr. 2014 | 1347 | 1792 | 1655–1930 | 1557 | 2317 | 2157–2477 |
| May 2014 | 1271 | 1694 | 1553–1835 | 1545 | 2356 | 2189–2522 |
| Jun. 2014 | 965 | 1517 | 1372–1662 | 1521 | 2379 | 2207–2551 |
| Total | 16,272 | 20,258 | 23,265 | 30,458 | ||
| Difference | −3986 | −7193 | ||||
| Variation | −19.68% | −23.62% | ||||
| Stockpiling effect (var. Jun. 2013) |
7.63% | 7.23% | ||||
|
Series
Active Substance |
Packages
Amoxicillin |
Packages
Amoxicillin and Beta-Lactamase Inhibitors |
||||
| Date | Real Value | Prediction | Confidence Interval (80%) | Real Value | Prediction | Confidence Interval (80%) |
| Jun. 2013 | 34,671 | 31,763 | 28,860–34,662 | 25,897 | 23,889 | 22,018–25,760 |
| Jul. 2013 | 22,177 | 25,553 | 22,672–28,433 | 21,009 | 24,240 | 22,400–26,079 |
| Aug. 2013 | 17,158 | 21,420 | 17,719–25,122 | 19,012 | 23,343 | 21,266–25,421 |
| Sep. 2013 | 24,811 | 30,277 | 26,127–34,427 | 21,377 | 25,021 | 22,944–27,098 |
| Oct. 2013 | 31,244 | 35,922 | 31,504–40,340 | 21,151 | 28,156 | 26,079–30,233 |
| Nov. 2013 | 36,462 | 41,326 | 36,742–45,910 | 18,909 | 27,648 | 25,571–29,725 |
| Dec. 2013 | 31,615 | 43,703 | 39,014–48,393 | 23,170 | 29,024 | 26,947–31,101 |
| Jan. 2014 | 29,702 | 42,492 | 37,735–47,248 | 23,802 | 32,634 | 30,557–34,711 |
| Feb. 2014 | 24,601 | 43,483 | 38,684–48,283 | 18,246 | 31,123 | 29,046–33,200 |
| Mar. 2014 | 25,047 | 43,360 | 38,532–48,188 | 18,852 | 31,016 | 28,939–33,093 |
| Apr. 2014 | 21,518 | 33,168 | 28,322–38,014 | 17,605 | 26,614 | 24,536–28,691 |
| May 2014 | 20,855 | 37,643 | 32,785–42,501 | 17,288 | 27,619 | 25,541–29,696 |
| Jun. 2014 | 20,149 | 34,337 | 29,471–39,202 | 16,864 | 25,570 | 23,493–27,647 |
| Total | 340,010 | 464,447 | 263,182 | 355,897 | ||
| Difference | −124,437 | −92,715 | ||||
| Variation | −26.79% | −26.05% | ||||
| Stockpiling effect (var. Jun. 2013) |
9.16% | 8.40% | ||||
Legend: RDL (Royal Decree-Law). Source: Own elaboration based on data provided by the Basque Government Pharmacy Department.