Table A6.

Saving of the approval of the PRAN by active substance (predictions with the ARIMA models in Table A5).

Series Active Substance	Euros Amoxicillin			DID Amoxicillin
Date	Real Value	Prediction	Confidence Interval (80%)	Real Value	Prediction	Confidence Interval (80%)
Jul. 2015	236,664	257,412	240,284–274,540	0.261	0.271	0.264–0.278
Aug. 2015	165,798	186,423	169,294–203,552	0.200	0.247	0.240–0.255
Sep. 2015	235,282	255,462	238,332–272,592	0.290	0.300	0.293–0.307
Oct. 2015	304,086	326,475	308,695–344,255	0.330	0.341	0.334–0.348
Nov. 2015	300,430	319,920	302,140–337,700	0.326	0.343	0.336–0.350
Dec. 2015	298,582	318,720	301,588–335,852	0.384	0.393	0.386–0.400
Jan. 2016	318,228	338,012	320,878–355,146	0.378	0.487	0.480–0.494
Feb. 2016	260,585	342,410	324,672–360,148	0.390	0.399	0.392–0.406
Mar. 2016	288,645	311,984	294,246–329,722	0.377	0.399	0.392–0.406
Apr. 2016	251,430	281,903	264,165–299,641	0.319	0.328	0.321–0.335
May 2016	266,836	291,412	273,674–309,150	0.321	0.334	0.324–0.344
Jun. 2016	244,219	264,347	246,609–282,085	0.283	0.294	0.284–0.304
Total	3,170,785	3.494.480		3.859	4.136
Difference	−323,695			−0.277
Variation	−9.26%			−6.69%
Series Active Substance	Euros Amoxicillin and Inhibitors			DID Amoxicillin and Inhibitors
Date	Real Value	Prediction	Confidence Interval (80%)	Real Value	Prediction	Confidence Interval (80%)
Jul. 2015	135,686	143,620	137,669–149,571	0.336	0.349	0.341–0.357
Aug. 2015	120,658	134,021	122,677–145,366	0.302	0.316	0.308–0.324
Sep. 2015	146,708	160,125	148,329–171,921	0.339	0.360	0.352–0.368
Oct. 2015	159,832	174,841	161,689–187,993	0.384	0.396	0.389–0.403
Nov. 2015	152,695	170,423	156,503–184,343	0.381	0.394	0.387–0.401
Dec. 2015	172,782	191,200	176,314–206,086	0.428	0.448	0.441–0.455
Jan. 2016	169,610	187,921	172,230–203,612	0.455	0.468	0.458–0.478
Feb. 2016	165,837	184,701	168,181–201,221	0.403	0.420	0.410–0.430
Mar. 2016	156,092	177,730	160,440–195,020	0.401	0.420	0.410–0.430
Apr. 2016	135,329	158,001	139,953–176,049	0.338	0.354	0.344–0.364
May 2016	139,558	161,741	142,967–180,515	0.331	0.351	0.341–0.361
Jun. 2016	131,058	154,379	134,898–173,860	0.329	0.347	0.337–0.357
Total	1,785,846	1.998.703		4.427	4,621
Difference	−212,858			−0.193
Variation	−10.65%			−4.19%
Series Active Substance	Euros Azithromycin			DID Azithromycin
Date	Real Value	Prediction	Confidence Interval (80%)	Real Value	Prediction	Confidence Interval (80%)
Jul. 2015	76,836	86,747	77,667–95,826	0.081	0.089	0.082–0.097
Aug. 2015	63,910	76,970	64,463–89,477	0.066	0.078	0.067.20 0.090
Sep. 2015	81,021	95,662	82,639–108,685	0.087	0.101	0.089–0.112
Oct. 2015	95,210	110,230	96,711–123,750	0.101	0.115	0.103–0.127
Nov. 2015	95,016	109,752	95,754–123,751	0.090	0.104	0.092–0.117
Dec. 2015	119,522	135,372	120,911–149,834	0.123	0.139	0.126–0.152
Jan. 2016	128,086	154,055	139,144–168,965	0.144	0.159	0.145–0.172
Feb. 2016	118,522	135,161	119,815–150,507	0.123	0.139	0.126–0.153
Mar. 2016	112,412	130,740	114,971–146,510	0.119	0.135	0.121–0.150
Apr. 2016	96,023	112,525	96,344–128,707	0.102	0.117	0.103–0.132
May 2016	94,177	112,275	95,691–128,859	0.101	0.117	0.102–0.132
Jun. 2016	94,204	111,289	94,313–128,265	0.098	0.114	0.099–0.129
Total	1,174,938	1,370,780		1.24055	1.414558
Difference	−195,841			−0.17401
Variation	−14.29%			−12.30%

Legend: DID (daily defined doses per thousand people). Source: Own elaboration based on data provided by the Basque Government Pharmacy Department.