Table 1.
Epidemiological parameters estimated by multitype birth‐death analysis
| Parameter | Median | 95% HPD lower | 95% HPD upper |
|---|---|---|---|
| R0 Italy | 1.032 | 0.969 | 1.111 |
| R0 Shanghai | 1.011 | 0.917 | 1.124 |
| R0 Spain | 1.656 | 0.823 | 3.0155 |
| δItaly | 173.738 | 77.686 | 298.531 |
| δShanghai | 173.738 | 77.686 | 298.531 |
| δSpain | 173.738 | 77.686 | 298.531 |
| CShanghai to Italy | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| CShanghai to Spain | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| CItaly to Spain | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| CItaly | 26 | 25 | 27 |
| CShanghai | 26 | 24 | 27 |
| CSpain | 20 | 18 | 21 |
| mItaly to Spain | 0.207 | 0.014 | 0.618 |
| mShanghai to Italy | 1.413 | 1.122 × 10−3 | 3.716 |
| mShanghai to spain | 0.594 | 0.022 | 1.635 |
Note: Posterior parameter estimates of SRAS‐COV‐2 analysis. Median posterior estimates and 95% HPD intervals, the rate to become noninfectious δ, and the migration rates mij and estimated numbers of migration events Cij from subpopulation i to j for i, j∈{Italy, Shanghai, Spain}.
Abbreviations: HPD, highest posterior density; SARS‐CoV‐2, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.