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Smoothed estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) trajectories for 4 example patients. The black line represents the mean estimated eGFR trajectory based on 3,000 smoothed trajectories (with 95% pointwise credible intervals represented by the gray shaded area) from a Bayesian penalized spline regression model that could have produced the patient’s observed eGFR measurements (dots). Abbreviation: PNL, probability of nonlinearity.
