Table 3.
Full-sample connectedness matrix.
| Panel A:Soybeans | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soybeans | EPU | ESI | DEF | SI | VIX | GPR | From | |
| Soybeans | 0.857 | 0.023 | 0.018 | 0.043 | 0.027 | 0.018 | 0.015 | 0.143 |
| EPU | 0.034 | 0.864 | 0.001 | 0.023 | 0.034 | 0.031 | 0.013 | 0.136 |
| ESI | 0.025 | 0.028 | 0.887 | 0.020 | 0.018 | 0.014 | 0.008 | 0.113 |
| DEF | 0.014 | 0.002 | 0.013 | 0.875 | 0.028 | 0.032 | 0.036 | 0.125 |
| SI | 0.036 | 0.034 | 0.030 | 0.027 | 0.862 | 0.002 | 0.010 | 0.138 |
| VIX | 0.009 | 0.068 | 0.009 | 0.020 | 0.031 | 0.834 | 0.029 | 0.166 |
| GPR | 0.011 | 0.021 | 0.010 | 0.012 | 0.010 | 0.034 | 0.902 | 0.098 |
| To | 0.129 | 0.175 | 0.080 | 0.145 | 0.148 | 0.132 | 0.111 | Total |
| Net |
−0.015 |
0.039 |
−0.033 |
0.020 |
0.009 |
−0.034 |
0.013 |
0.131 |
| Panel B:Gold | ||||||||
| Gold |
EPU |
ESI |
DEF |
SI |
VIX |
GPR |
From |
|
| Gold | 0.884 | 0.018 | 0.010 | 0.010 | 0.025 | 0.042 | 0.012 | 0.116 |
| EPU | 0.014 | 0.877 | 0.005 | 0.013 | 0.029 | 0.043 | 0.019 | 0.123 |
| ESI | 0.004 | 0.022 | 0.922 | 0.012 | 0.017 | 0.011 | 0.011 | 0.078 |
| DEF | 0.010 | 0.006 | 0.025 | 0.849 | 0.051 | 0.044 | 0.015 | 0.151 |
| SI | 0.025 | 0.008 | 0.007 | 0.020 | 0.901 | 0.019 | 0.020 | 0.099 |
| VIX | 0.049 | 0.072 | 0.007 | 0.033 | 0.017 | 0.788 | 0.035 | 0.212 |
| GPR | 0.014 | 0.005 | 0.015 | 0.009 | 0.052 | 0.009 | 0.895 | 0.105 |
| To | 0.117 | 0.130 | 0.070 | 0.097 | 0.191 | 0.168 | 0.112 | Total |
| Net |
0.001 |
0.006 |
−0.008 |
−0.054 |
0.092 |
−0.044 |
0.007 |
0.126 |
| Panel C:Crude oil | ||||||||
| WTI |
EPU |
ESI |
DEF |
SI |
VIX |
GPR |
From |
|
| WTI | 0.672 | 0.027 | 0.024 | 0.050 | 0.008 | 0.217 | 0.002 | 0.328 |
| EPU | 0.008 | 0.899 | 0.007 | 0.009 | 0.011 | 0.035 | 0.030 | 0.101 |
| ESI | 0.028 | 0.020 | 0.889 | 0.010 | 0.028 | 0.013 | 0.013 | 0.111 |
| DEF | 0.022 | 0.011 | 0.029 | 0.851 | 0.023 | 0.048 | 0.016 | 0.149 |
| SI | 0.013 | 0.006 | 0.014 | 0.025 | 0.911 | 0.022 | 0.009 | 0.089 |
| VIX | 0.041 | 0.065 | 0.007 | 0.036 | 0.030 | 0.792 | 0.029 | 0.208 |
| GPR | 0.005 | 0.012 | 0.011 | 0.011 | 0.015 | 0.006 | 0.941 | 0.059 |
| To | 0.119 | 0.141 | 0.092 | 0.140 | 0.114 | 0.340 | 0.099 | Total |
| Net | −0.209 | 0.041 | −0.019 | −0.009 | 0.025 | 0.132 | 0.039 | 0.149 |
Note: SI = investor sentiment index, VIX = volatility index, DEF = default spread, EPU = US economic policy uncertainty Index, ESI = Citi economic surprise index, GPR = geopolitical risk index.