Fig 5. Simulation results.

Each panel represents a set of simulations generated with a different value of t_mig (rows) and t_div (columns). Within each panel, each bar gives the basewise true positive rate for a particular migration event, using a posterior probability threshold of 0.5. The color of each bar represents the value of t_mig assumed for the inference model (orange = 50kya, red = 150kya, purple = 250kya, blue = 350kya). Shaded bars represent an assumption of t_div = 1.5Mya for inference, whereas solid bars represent t_div = 1.0Mya. Because the archaic hominin fossils are older than 50kya, results for t_mig = 50kya (top) are only applicable for introgression into humans.