Figure 10.

Example trajectories indicating different dynamic regimes of Covid-19: (a) Basic rise and falling regimes refer to transmission intervals of 3-4 and more than 10 days, respectively. They were observed in European countries under complete lock down such as Austria. Incomplete lock down as applied in Sweden only slowed down spread of epidemic. It associates with roughly two times more infections and a more than four-fold death-toll. (b) Eradication of epidemic can be expected in island states (Iceland, New Zealand) and other relatively small countries (e.g., Croatia) showing disappearance of new cases two to three months after the outbreak (see epi-curves in the insertion). Another example of eradication is Covid-19 spread at the Princess Diamond cruise liner with about 760 infections. (c) Wave-like up and downs of epidemic were observed in Armenia and Iran. The trajectories transform into wave-like oscillations of the effective reproduction number (insertion). (d) A new spike of cases is seen in the trajectory of South Korea. (e) The start of a 2nd wave becomes evident in the first week of July in selected countries, especially, (f) at the Balkan. The trajectory for US is shown for comparison showing also indications of a second wave.