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. 2020 Aug 6;5(8):e002300. doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-002300

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© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

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HIV transmission Markov model. For each underlying population, a Markov chain is considered with the state space, consisting of the six states: (1) HIV-; (2) HIV+ undiagnosed; (3) HIV+ diagnosed pre-ART; (4) HIV+ diagnosed on ART with viral suppression; (5) HIV+ diagnosed on ART with virological failure; and (6) death. State (5) represents a setting where viral suppression is not achieved under the current ART regimen, or where individuals discontinued ART for the duration of the 3-month cycle. ART, antiretroviral therapy; ‘+’, positive; ‘-’, negative.