Table 1.
Sizes of the three populations and number of individuals within each state for each population
| Parameter | Base value | Lower bound | Upper bound | Source |
| FSW population | ||||
| HIV- (State 1) | 25 964 | 13 340 | 48 950 | BBSS SW Rwanda 20156 |
| Undiagnosed HIV (State 2) | 983 | – | 53 625 | BBSS SW Rwanda 20156 |
| Diagnosed HIV pre-ART (State 3) | 771 | – | 50 734 | BBSS SW Rwanda 20156 |
| HIV+ with viral suppression on ART (State 4) | 9940 | 5444 | 35 425 | BBSS SW Rwanda 20156 |
| HIV+ without viral suppression on ART (State 5) |
10 092 | 1894 | 10 266 | BBSS SW Rwanda 20156 |
| Total size | 47 750 | 25 000 | 111 000 | ESPHS Rwanda 201129 |
| Sex client population | ||||
| HIV- (State 1) | 133 808 | 38 070 | – | BBSS SW Rwanda 20156 |
| Undiagnosed HIV (State 2) | 4166 | 550 | – | BBSS SW Rwanda 20156 |
| Diagnosed HIV pre-ART (State 3) | 1859 | – | 31 573 | UNAIDS 201613; Nsanzimana 201525 |
| HIV+ with viral suppression on ART (State 4) | 9815 | 524 | – | UNAIDS 201613; Nsanzimana 201525 |
| HIV+ without viral suppression on ART (State 5) |
6963 | 736 | – | UNAIDS 201613 |
| Total size | 156 611 | 42 300 | 177 000 | ESPHS Rwanda 201129 |
| General population | ||||
| HIV- (State 1) | 11 467 068 | 11 395 940 | 11 502 223 | NISR 20155; UNAIDS 2016 |
| Undiagnosed HIV (State 2) | 24 337 | – | 179 973 | UNAIDS 201613 |
| Diagnosed HIV pre-ART (State 3) | 11 874 | – | 231 646 | UNAIDS 201613; Nsanzimana 201525 |
| HIV+ with viral suppression on ART (State 4) | 156 679 | 112 499 | 244 172 | UNAIDS 201613; Nsanzimana 201525 |
| HIV+ without viral suppression on ART (State 5) |
161 180 | – | 236 966 | UNAIDS 201613 |
| Total size | 11 809 264 | – | – | NISR 20155 |
The base values used for the 2017–2027 model run were the output values for the calibrated model.
ART, antiretroviral therapy.