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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2021 Jul 1.
Published in final edited form as: Ann Epidemiol. 2020 May 12;47:4–7. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2020.05.002

Table 2.

Interpreting components of the causal effect

Difference Interpretation
p3 – p4 If greater than zero, Sanders would cause more people to turn out to vote Democrat (vs. not voting) than Biden would.
If less than zero, Biden would cause a greater Democratic turnout than Sanders.
p6 – p5 If greater than zero, Biden would cause more people to turn out to vote Republican (vs. not voting) than Sanders would.
If less than zero, Sanders would cause a greater Republican turnout than Biden.
2 × (p7 – p8) If greater than zero, Sanders would swing more votes from Republican to Democrat than Biden would.
If less than zero, Biden would swing more votes from Republican to Democrat than Sanders.
Note, this difference has twice the weight as the other two.