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. 2020 Aug 8;20:97. doi: 10.1186/s12862-020-01628-1

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

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Fig. 5 — Comparison of profiles. a AICc profile of tests for large-scale extinction in RPANDA. AICc scores from models that feature constant speciation rates and allow extinction rate to vary as a function of an environmental variable. The model that had a sharp increase in extinction rate at 34 Ma was best but was statistically indistinguishable from other models with extinctions at similar times (black points on grey shading) and moderately better supported than all other candidate models (dashed lines indicate ΔAIC of 4). Grey points show AICc of models with temperature and its rates of change influencing extinction rate and null model; white circles show AICc of models with time-varying speciation and extinction rates. b AIC weight profile for models with extinctions compared to null model. c Bayes Factor profile for timing of extinctions with 95% extinction (95% CI: 91–99%). d Bayes Factor profile for timing of extinctions with75% extinction (95% CI: 50–93%). e 2 Bayes Factor profile for timing of extinctions with 5% extinction (95% CI: 6–52%). Grey shaded areas indicate times at which moderate amount of support for extinction is found