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. 2020 Aug 8;101(3):1833–1846. doi: 10.1007/s11071-020-05853-7

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 5 — Time evolution of the endemic component $ν_{r, t}$ of Italian provinces (left) and national average with $95 %$ confidence band (right). Vertical dotted lines mark dates when: (i) the Italian Government issued the RCA; (ii) the Italian Government established the national quarantine. Vertical shaded band highlights the 95% confidence interval of the incubation period of COVID-19 as estimated in [15] for contagions that occurred the day that the DPCM of 11 March 2020 came into force