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. 2020 Aug 8;101(3):1833–1846. doi: 10.1007/s11071-020-05853-7

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 8 — Observed and predicted number of contagions between 24 February 2020 and 20 April 2020 in nine provinces. Selected northern provinces are Alessandria (Piedmont region), Bergamo (Lombardy region), Venezia (Veneto region), Rimini (Emilia-Romagna region) and Pesaro-Urbino (Marche region). The centre and southern provinces are Rieti (Lazio region), Avellino (Campania region), Crotone (Calabria region) and Caltanissetta (Sicily region). The vertical axis represents the daily number of infections, and the horizontal axis represents the time in days after 24 February 2020. The dots represent the observed daily counts. The yellow area represents the endemic component. The light blue area represents the within-epidemic component. The orange area represents the between-epidemic component