Table 2.

Adjustable parameters of the COVID-19 spread in Italy, France, and Iran, obtained in early April and late April

Country	Italy	Italy	France	France	Iran	Iran
Analysis date	April 3	April 21	April 9	April 21	April 5	April 21
k11,0 (day−1)	0.378	0.40	0.323	0.323	0.32	0.34
Correction	0.136	0.08	0.049	0.049	0.518	0.296
t1	March 9	March 2	March 24	March 24	March 5	March 5
E1	0.794	0.224	0.87	0.89	0.73	0.8
t2	–	March 9	–	–	–	–
E2	–	0.46	–	–	–	–
t3	–	March 21	–	–	–	–
E3	–	0.226	–	–	–	–
kspike	–	–	–	–	–	0.6
tspike	–	–	–	–	–	March 20
Population	60.5 × 106	60.5 × 106	65.2 × 106	65.2 × 106	83.7 × 106	83.7 × 106
Projected deaths	47,620	31,323	35,156	32,499	13,676	8061

Note that t_j is the day after the NPI decision, whereas t_spike is the day of the event leading to the spike