Table 3.

Adjustable parameters of the COVID-19 spread in Italy, France, and Iran, obtained in late April and mid-July

Country	Italy	Italy	France	France	Iran	Iran
Analysis date	April 21	July 18	April 21	July 18	April 21	July 18
k11,0 (day−1)	0.40	0.40	0.323	0.323	0.34	0.34
Correction	0.08	0.08	0.049	0.049	0.296	0.296
t1	March 2	March 2	March 24	March 24	March 5	March 5
E1	0.224	0.224	0.89	0.92	0.8	0.8
t2	March 9	March 9	–	May 12	–	May 1
E2	0.46	0.46	–	–0.1	–	–0.185
t3	March 21	March 21	–	June 1	–	June 1
E3	0.226	0.226	–	–0.12	–	0.015
t4		March 31				July 1
E4		–0.05				0.0925*
t5		May 18
E5		–0.05
kspike	–	–	–	–	0.6	0.6
tspike	–	–	–	–	March 20	March 20
Population	60.5 × 106	60.5 × 106	65.2 × 106	65.2 × 106	83.7 × 106	83.7 × 106
Projected deaths	31,323	35,656	32,499	32,476	8061	39,022

Note that t_j is the day after the NPI decision, whereas t_spike is the day of the event leading to the spike

*Corresponding with a reduction in k₁₁ of 25% at the time of implementation