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. 2020 Jul 9;10(15):8506–8516. doi: 10.1002/ece3.6554

FIGURE 2.

FIGURE 2

The decline in the global African penguin breeding population since 1979 (left, a, b, and c), in the Namibian population since 1985 (center, d, e, and f), and in the South African population since 1979 (right, g, h, and i). Top row (a, d, g): the JARA fitted median (black line) and 95% highest posterior density intervals (HPDI; gray polygon) for the population trend of African penguins based on nest counts from 22 colonies made between 1979 (1985 in Namibia) and 2019. The 10‐year generation lengths before 2019 are denoted by a blue dashed line (−1G, 2009), a green dashed line (−2G, 1999) and a red dashed line (−3G, 1989). Middle row (b, e, and h): the posterior medians (solid lines) and probability distributions (colored polygons) for the annual rate of population change (%) calculated from all the data (All years, in black and gray), from the last 10 years (1G; in blue), last 20 years (2G; in green), and last 30 years (3G; in red) shown relative to a stable population (% change = 0, black dashed line). Bottom row (c, f, and I): the median change (%, dashed line) in the breeding population of penguins globally (c) in Namibia (f) and in South Africa (I) over three generations (3G) or 30 years and corresponding posterior probability (gray polygon) for that change, overlaid on the IUCN thresholds for the Red List criterion A2 (LC—dark green, VU—yellow, EN—orange, CR—red)