Table 2.

Non-Markov Alvarez et.al State occupation probabilities $P_{1h(0,t)}=P(X\left(t\right)=\mathit{hX}\left(0\right)=\mathit{disease}))$ and Transition probabilities.

State/ Path	From time (s)	To time (t)	State occupation /Transition probability	95% CI State occupation /Transition probability
Disease	0	1st year	0.74	(0.68-0.79)
	0	2nd year	0.56	(0.50-0.63)
	0	5th year	0.45	(0.38-0.51)
	0	7th year	0.43	(0.37-0.50)
	0	10th year	0.39	(0.31-0.47)
Local relapse	0	1st year	0.10	(0.06-0.14)
	0	2nd year	0.11	(0.06-0.16)
	0	5th year	0.09	(0.04-0.15)
	0	7th year	0.08	(0.05-0.11)
	0	10th year	0.07	(0.04-0.10)
Death	0	1st year	0.15	(0.11-0.21)
	0	2nd year	0.33	(0.26-0.39)
	0	5th year	0.46	(0.39-0.53)
	0	7th year	0.48	(0.41-0.56)
	0	10th year	0.53	(0.43-0.63)
Disease → Local relapse	1st year	10th year	0.04	(0.01-0.07)
	2nd year	10th year	0.02	(0.00-0.05)
	5th year	10th year	0.00	(0.00-0.02)
Disease → Death	1st year	10th year	0.42	(0.31-0.54)
	2nd year	10th year	0.28	(0.14-0.41)
	5th year	10th year	0.12	(0.00-0.26)
Local relapse → Death	1st year 2nd year	10th year 10th year	0.62 0.44	(0.37-0.87) (0.19-0.69)