Table 2.
Estimated cumulative number of deaths due to cancer up to 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years after diagnosis, in the pre-pandemic period and for each pandemic scenario A–C (also presented as additional number of deaths)
|
Number of deaths due to cancer |
Additional number of deaths due to cancer |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 1 year |
3 years |
5 years |
||||
| n | Percentage increase | n | Percentage increase | n | Percentage increase | ||||
| Breast cancer (n=32 583) | |||||||||
| Pre-pandemic period | 965 (958–972) | 2495 (2484–2505) | 3565 (3554–3577) | ·· | ·· | ·· | ·· | ·· | ·· |
| Scenario A | 985 (977–993) | 2664 (2651–2676) | 3846 (3831–3861) | 20 (15–25) | 2·1% (1·6–2·6) | 169 (159–179) | 6·8% (6·4–7·2) | 281 (266–295) | 7·9% (7·5–8·3) |
| Scenario B | 1018 (1009–1026) | 2709 (2696–2722) | 3894 (3876–3911) | 53 (47–59) | 5·5% (4·9–6·2) | 214 (202–226) | 8·6% (8·1–9·0) | 329 (313–344) | 9·2% (8·8–9·7) |
| Scenario C | 1028 (1019–1036) | 2723 (2709–2737) | 3908 (3890–3926) | 63 (57–70) | 6·6% (5·9–7·2) | 228 (218–239) | 9·1% (8·7–9·6) | 344 (329–358) | 9·6% (9·2–10·1) |
| Colorectal cancer (n=24 975) | |||||||||
| Pre-pandemic period | 5051 (5004–5099) | 8056 (8007–8109) | 9417 (9367–9470) | ·· | ·· | ·· | ·· | ·· | ·· |
| Scenario A | 5986 (5943–6025) | 9436 (9391–9475) | 10 980 (10 940–11 020) | 935 (918–953) | 18·5% (18·0–19·0) | 1379 (1354–1405) | 17·1% (16·8–17·5) | 1563 (1534–1592) | 16·6% (16·2–17·0) |
| Scenario B | 5972 (5929–6028) | 9357 (9299–9459) | 10 862 (10 797–10 995) | 921 (894–970) | 18·2% (17·6–19·2) | 1301 (1257–1411) | 16·1% (15·6–17·5) | 1445 (1392–1591) | 15·3% (14·8–16·9) |
| Scenario C | 6078 (6032–6140) | 9470 (9409–9613) | 10 972 (10 903–11 162) | 1027 (999–1094) | 20·3% (19·7–21·6) | 1414 (1371–1568) | 17·6% (17·0–19·4) | 1555 (1498–1760) | 16·5% (15·9–18·7) |
| Lung cancer (n=29 305) | |||||||||
| Pre-pandemic period | 18 443 (18 388–18 503) | 24 138 (24 097–24 172) | 25 934 (25 901–25 963) | ·· | ·· | ·· | ·· | ·· | ·· |
| Scenario A | 19 545 (19 497–19 594) | 25 369 (25 339–25 398) | 27 170 (27 148–27 191) | 1102 (1087–1117) | 6·0% (5·9–6·1) | 1231 (1216–1249) | 5·1% (5·0–5·2) | 1235 (1220–1254) | 4·8% (4·7–4·8) |
| Scenario B | 19 769 (19 721–19 817) | 25 498 (25 464–25 531) | 27 267 (27 240–27 297) | 1326 (1295–1362) | 7·2% (7·0–7·4) | 1360 (1331–1389) | 5·6% (5·5–5·8) | 1332 (1306–1360) | 5·1% (5·0–5·2) |
| Scenario C | 19 855 (19 804–19 901) | 25 549 (25 519–25 582) | 27 306 (27 280–27 334) | 1412 (1379–1447) | 7·7% (7·5–7·9) | 1412 (1381–1442) | 5·8% (5·7–6·0) | 1372 (1343–1401) | 5·3% (5·2–5·4) |
| Oesophageal cancer (n=6744) | |||||||||
| Pre-pandemic period | 3656 (3642–3670) | 5359 (5349–5369) | 5730 (5720–5741) | ·· | ·· | ·· | ·· | ·· | ·· |
| Scenario A | 3995 (3978–4012) | 5701 (5690–5714) | 6060 (6049–6073) | 339 (334–343) | 9·3% (9·2–9·4) | 343 (337–348) | 6·4% (6·3–6·5) | 330 (324–335) | 5·8% (5·7–5·8) |
| Scenario B | 4024 (4006–4041) | 5714 (5703–5726) | 6069 (6058–6081) | 367 (362–373) | 10·1% (9·9–10·2) | 355 (350–361) | 6·6% (6·5–6·7) | 339 (333–345) | 5·9% (5·8–6·0) |
| Scenario C | 4034 (4017–4050) | 5718 (5707–5731) | 6072 (6061–6084) | 377 (372–383) | 10·3% (10·2–10·5) | 359 (354–365) | 6·7% (6·6–6·9) | 342 (336–348) | 6·0% (5·9–6·1) |
Data are cumulative number of deaths or percentage change in number of deaths, with 95% CIs in parentheses. Point estimates and 95% CIs were calculated from bootstrap samples of the original data.