Table 2.
Predicted number of prevalent patients with diabetes and prevalence 2017–2040, using six different prediction scenarios for incidence rates: naive prediction from a splines-based APC model, attenuation with halving of rate change per 5 years, fixing rates at the level of 1 January 2017 and an increase of incidence of 2%, 4% and 6% per year (mortality rate changes are also attenuated by a halving of rate change per 5 years in all scenarios)
| Date | APC-naive | Attenuation | 0%/year | Fixed annual incidence increase | 6%/year | |||||||
| 2%/year | 4%/year | |||||||||||
| 1 Jan | N | % | N | % | N | % | N | % | N | % | N | % |
| M | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | 163 046 | 5.7 | 163 031 | 5.7 | 162 695 | 5.6 | 162 996 | 5.7 | 163 014 | 5.7 | 163 031 | 5.7 |
| 2019 | 169 921 | 5.9 | 169 787 | 5.9 | 168 426 | 5.8 | 169 557 | 5.9 | 169 713 | 5.9 | 169 871 | 5.9 |
| 2020 | 177 504 | 6.1 | 177 038 | 6.1 | 174 029 | 6.0 | 176 421 | 6.1 | 176 956 | 6.1 | 177 504 | 6.1 |
| 2025 | 227 155 | 7.6 | 217 909 | 7.3 | 199 718 | 6.7 | 212 735 | 7.1 | 219 519 | 7.4 | 226 953 | 7.6 |
| 2030 | 299 745 | 9.9 | 260 187 | 8.6 | 220 633 | 7.3 | 249 815 | 8.2 | 270 791 | 8.9 | 295 261 | 9.7 |
| 2035 | 400 956 | 13.0 | 298 297 | 9.7 | 236 477 | 7.7 | 286 589 | 9.3 | 330 343 | 10.7 | 384 353 | 12.5 |
| 2040 | 537 954 | 17.2 | 330 611 | 10.6 | 248 358 | 8.0 | 323 695 | 10.4 | 399 279 | 12.8 | 497 106 | 15.9 |
| W | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | 131 442 | 4.5 | 131 429 | 4.5 | 131 138 | 4.5 | 131 397 | 4.5 | 131 410 | 4.5 | 131 423 | 4.5 |
| 2019 | 136 492 | 4.7 | 136 375 | 4.7 | 135 187 | 4.6 | 136 156 | 4.7 | 136 275 | 4.7 | 136 396 | 4.7 |
| 2020 | 142 177 | 4.8 | 141 763 | 4.8 | 139 126 | 4.7 | 141 160 | 4.8 | 141 571 | 4.8 | 141 992 | 4.8 |
| 2025 | 181 787 | 6.1 | 173 236 | 5.8 | 156 961 | 5.2 | 167 788 | 5.6 | 173 054 | 5.8 | 178 833 | 6.0 |
| 2030 | 245 124 | 8.0 | 207 174 | 6.8 | 171 229 | 5.6 | 195 238 | 6.4 | 211 675 | 6.9 | 230 955 | 7.6 |
| 2035 | 340 134 | 11.0 | 238 481 | 7.7 | 181 736 | 5.9 | 222 661 | 7.2 | 257 289 | 8.3 | 300 584 | 9.7 |
| 2040 | 475 714 | 15.2 | 265 069 | 8.5 | 189 225 | 6.0 | 250 399 | 8.0 | 310 896 | 9.9 | 391 134 | 12.5 |
| M+W | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | 294 489 | 5.1 | 294 460 | 5.1 | 293 833 | 5.1 | 294 393 | 5.1 | 294 424 | 5.1 | 294 455 | 5.1 |
| 2019 | 306 414 | 5.3 | 306 162 | 5.3 | 303 613 | 5.2 | 305 713 | 5.3 | 305 989 | 5.3 | 306 267 | 5.3 |
| 2020 | 319 680 | 5.5 | 318 801 | 5.5 | 313 156 | 5.4 | 317 581 | 5.4 | 318 527 | 5.5 | 319 496 | 5.5 |
| 2025 | 408 942 | 6.8 | 391 145 | 6.5 | 356 679 | 6.0 | 380 523 | 6.4 | 392 573 | 6.6 | 405 786 | 6.8 |
| 2030 | 544 869 | 8.9 | 467 362 | 7.7 | 391 862 | 6.4 | 445 053 | 7.3 | 482 466 | 7.9 | 526 217 | 8.6 |
| 2035 | 741 090 | 12.0 | 536 778 | 8.7 | 418 213 | 6.8 | 509 250 | 8.2 | 587 633 | 9.5 | 684 936 | 11.1 |
| 2040 | 1 013 668 | 16.2 | 595 680 | 9.5 | 437 582 | 7.0 | 574 094 | 9.2 | 710 175 | 11.4 | 888 240 | 14.2 |
The boldface numbers are the predictions we report as the most reliable and used in figure 2. It should be noted that figures beyond 2030 are very uncertain.
APC, age–period–cohort; M, men; W, women.