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. 2020 Jul 4;61(2):E259–E289. doi: 10.15167/2421-4248/jpmh2020.61.2.1244

Tab. III.

Predicting the incidence and mortality cases of LC from 2018 to 2040.

Year 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Event Sex Number Number Demographic change (APC 0%) Number Demographic change (APC 0%) Number Demographic change (APC 0%) Number Demographic change (APC 0%) Number Demographic change (APC 0%)
Incidence Males 596,574 626,767 30,193 (+5.1%) 706,015 109,441 (+18.3%) 788,519 191,945 (+32.2%) 872,035 275,461 (+46.2%) 952,887 356,313 (+59.7%)
Females 244,506 257,158 12,652 (+5.2%) 291,880 47,374 (+19.4%) 329,839 85,333 (+34.9%) 369,691 125,185 (+51.2%) 408,949 164,443 (+67.3%)
Both sexes 841,080 883,925 42,845 (+5.1%) 997,895 156,815 (+18.6%) 1,118,358 277,278 (+33.0%) 1,241,726 400,646 (+47.6%) 1,361,836 520,756 (+61.9%)
Mortality Males 548,375 576,354 27,979 (+5.1%) 650,956 102,581 (+18.7%) 729,536 181,161 (+33.0%) 809,877 261,502 (+47.7%) 888,195 339,820 (+62.0%)
Females 233,256 245,373 12,171 (+5.2%) 279,165 45,909 (+19.7%) 316,578 83,322 (+35.7%) 356,440 123,184 (+52.8%) 396,057 162,801 (+69.8%)
Both sexes 781,631 821,727 40,096 (+5.1%) 930,121 148,490 (+19.0%) 1,046,114 264,483 (+33.8%) 1,166,317 384,686 (+49.2%) 1,284,252 502,621 (+64.3%)