Dean Howard (Figure 1 ), president of North American Höganäs Co., elected President of MPIF in 2019, was deprived of the opportunity to present his “State of the Industry” speech at WorldPM2020, the PM World Congress in Montreal that was cancelled because of the pandemic. The text was published as a press release at the end of June and will appear in the summer issue of the International Journal of Powder Metallurgy. The following notes summarize key aspects of the presentation.
Figure 1.
Dean Howard, MPIF President (Photo courtesy MPIF).
Howard began by noting the “cautious optimism” in the business outlook for the North American PM industry at the start of 2020, based on the MPIF members annual survey held in September 2019. While “the shocking COVID-19 pandemic damage on manufacturing and the global economy was unthinkable” at that time, “this global disruption [could] be a wake-up call that [triggers] a robust movement to bring off-shore manufacturing back to N. America.”
1. 2019 PM business statistics and technology trends
“Total North American metal powder shipments declined [in 2019] by an estimated 11% to 412,973 mt (455,317 st) (Table1 ). “Iron powder shipments decreased 10.4% to 352,234 mt (388,351 st). PM and friction-grade iron powder shipments were down as well by 10.4% to 320,257 mt (353,095 st), [while] welding applications dropped by 13.3% to 13,735 mt (15,143 st), and cutting, scarfing and lancing applications declined by 14% to 871 mt (960 st). Miscellaneous uses declined 6.4% to 17,372 mt (19,153 st).” (Figure 2 )
Table 1.
North American Metal Powder Shipments, 2018–2019. Source: MPIF.
| North American Metal Powder Shipments | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2019 | |||||
| Short Tons | Metric Tons | Short Tons | Metric Tons | |||
| Iron & Steel | 433,203 | 392,915 | 388,351 | 352,234 | ||
| Stainless Steel | 8,750 | 7,936 | E | 7,960 | 7,220 | E |
| Copper & Copper Base/Tin* | 18,500 | 16,780 | E | 16,900 | 15,328 | E |
| Aluminum | 33,660 | 30,530 | E | 26,448 | 23,988 | E |
| Molybdenum | 820 | 744 | R | 550 | 499 | E |
| Tungsten | 1,750 | 1,587 | E | 1,689 | 1,532 | E |
| Tungsten Carbide | 8,590 | 7,791 | E | 7,919 | 7,183 | E |
| Nickel | 6,100 | 5,533 | E | 5,500 | 4,989 | E |
| (E) estimate (R) revised | 511,373 | 463,815 | 455,317 | 412,973 | ||
| *PM parts only | ||||||
Figure 2.
North American Iron Powder Shipments, 2009–2019. Source: MPIF.
Declines were also seen in 2019 for other metal powder types. “Stainless steel, copper and nickel powder shipments all declined by an estimated 9 to 10%. Stainless steel powders decreased to 7,220 mt (7,960 st); copper and copper-base powder shipments to 15,328 mt (16,900 st), and nickel powder to 4,989 mt (5,500 st).”
“Aluminum powder shipments declined more than 21% to an estimated 23,988 mt (26,448 st). Molydenum shipments declined an estimated 32.9% to 499 mt (550 st). Tungsten powder shipments decreased by an estimated 3.5% to 1,532 mt (1,689 st), and tungsten carbide powder shipments decreased an estimated 7.8% to 7,183 mt (7,919 st).”
Turning to vehicle production in North America, Howard noted the decline over the past three years “due to increased costs of production, changes in supply chains, but primarily consumer demand. “In 2016, manufacturers in North America produced a record 18 million passenger vehicles. In 2019, around 16.8 million vehicles were produced in North America. Of these roughly 10.9 million were assembled in the United States. Mexico and Canada assembling around six million between them” …” While automotive applications account for around 75% of traditional PM parts production, there seems to be a disconnect between the sharp drop in iron powder shipments for parts versus robust vehicle production and sales.” Howard went on to consider some of the reasons for this. …” the growth of hybrid and electric vehicles, but the downsizing of engines and transmissions and a fading market for traditional sedans [were] the obvious culprits. Sedans, which make up about 28% of the North American sales are predominantly available only from transplanted Asian and European manufacturers. Designers in these regions have been less “PM friendly” and hesitant to adopt and utilize PM un their designs. It has been estimated that less than 30% of the global passenger vehicles’ connecting rods are powder-forged. Powder-forged connecting rods have been proven to outperform connecting rods produced by other technologies. The powder-forged connecting rod continues to be an opportunity for the PM industry and should be considered for hybrid passenger vehicles.”….”the greater acceptance of turbochargers to increase engine efficiency, including fuel economy, torque, and horsepower, has assisted in reducing engine sizes from 8 to 6 to 4 cylinders resulting in fewer connecting rods and main-bearing caps per vehicle, along with smaller transmission carriers. For example, 5- and 6-speed transmissions are being replaced by 8- and 9-speed designs that use smaller parts, which are more open to less costly castings and stampings. Many turbocharged 4-cylinder engines, and 3- and 4-cylinder hybrid engines are designed in Asia and Europe without powder-forged connecting rods or PM main bearing caps.” This has caused great concern in the North American PM industry and MPIF has made a fresh attempt to estimate the weight of PM parts in a North American passenger vehicle, a difficult task in view of the number of variables such as platform, design etc. As a result, the estimated average PM weight in a 2018 North American passenger vehicle has been revised downwards slightly from 19.5 kg (43 lb) and the average weight in a 2019 North American passenger vehicle was estimated to be 17.7 kg (39 lb), a decline of 9.3%. Howard added that many industry experts are projecting a decrease of 1–2% annually without new applications or a greater acceptance of powder-forged connecting rods and PM main bearing caps in hybrid engines.
2. Metal Injection Molding and additive manufacturing
Metal Injection Molding (MIM) and metal additive manufacturing (metal AM) both gained in 2019 in contrast to the press-and-sinter sector. “Sales [value] of MIM parts in the U.S. increased by an estimates 5% to a range of $460–480 million in 2019. It is estimated that MIM-grade powders, less than 20 µm, consumed in the U.S., domestically produced and imported, increased by 5% in 2019 to 3,637,627 kg (8,020,968 lb).” This included MIM-grade powders for metal AM applications.
“Interest in metal AM as a complement to MIM parts manufacturing is growing. More than 10 MIMA member companies reported that they anticipate purchasing metal AM production machines within the next two years, with the binder –jet process leading the way. Initially, MIM parts makers expect to use metal AM to print proto-type designs to avoid the need for costly tooling. Additionally, others will use metal AM to build tooling to reduce the time from part design to part production. MIM end markets remained stable in 2019, dominated by firearms and medical applications” (Figure 3 )
Figure 3.
North American MIM Market Breakdown. Source: MPIF.
3. Refractory metals
“The refractory metals market in 2019 was mostly flat to down. Imports of lower-cost tungsten carbide powders were up significantly, which negatively impacted North American powder shipments. In addition to lower-cost imports, the tungsten and tungsten carbide markets were down in 2019 due to a devastated oil-and-gas market, decreased global mining, and a decrease in manufacturing during the second half of the year.”
Howard noted that during 2018, considerable molybdenum powder production moved offshore, negatively affecting shipments of powder produced in North America. “After further analysis, a restatement of the 2018 moybdenum shipments was needed. New estimates for 2018 reflect a reduction from 856 mt (944 st) to 744 mt (820 st), representing a 34% drop compared with 2017. In 2019, North American molybdenum powder demand was estimated to be down by 50–55%.
4. 2020 trends
Amid the economic gloom and doom caused by the pandemic, Howard tried to find some bright spots. While iron powder shipments began 2020 by declining 5% in January and February, the numbers for PM applications plunged by 19.2% yr/yr in March, “a foreshadow of the COVID-19 pandemic that closed the North American automotive industry until mid-May.” Unemployment soared to levels near those seen in the Great Depression. “Elk County, PA, for example, where the PM industry’s hub, St Marys, is located, approached 26% unemployment, the highest rate in Pennsylvania. These economic events [were] testing the public consumer and corporations alike.” Despite the gloomy outlook for light vehicle sales and production, Howard mentioned one positive item: the new North American trade agreement (USMCA) that came into force on July 1st, 2020. This agreement includes “rules of origin that will govern how vehicles are produced, specifically that 75% of the value of finished vehicles [must] come from within the USMCA governed region: an increase of 12.5% from the previous NAFTA.” Howard added that this could be a great opportunity to bring back off-shore manufacturing of parts and assemblies.
Among other opportunities touched on by Howard included more value-added parts and assemblies, more families of parts, and new PM designs outside of engines and transmissions. “…gaining acceptance of PM in 3- and 4-cylinder hybrid vehicles should be a primary focus.”
“The PM industry has a strong technology base, built on the interaction of manufacturers, academia, and research organizations. As a maturing industry we must not let this diminish as every industry needs to continue to evolve or it will simply die. Investments in R&D for new materials, equipment advancements, and process refinement will need to remain strong.” He went on to mention some of the items metal powder producers, compacting press and sintering furnace manufacturers were working on. “There continues to be tremendous activity in the metal AM sector. From one manufacturer concentrating on making large parts, up to 450 kg (992 lb), for the aerospace and defense industries, to another developing binder-jet printing of tungsten heavy alloys and the directed energy deposition of molybdenum, there are a lot of opportunities for this exciting sector. In addition, advances continue for metal AM processes such as binder-jetting, material extrusion and material jetting, all of which are de-bound and sintered, leveraging the successes of the MIM technology.”
“MPIF, the Center for Powder Metallurgy Technology (CPMT), and the National Science Foundation (NSF) have been champions of advancing the PM technology through educational outreach. Over the past 3 years, over 150 engineering students have been awarded full-conference grants, including lodging, through the efforts of these organizations. The grants provide the opportunity for the PM industry to showcase the technology to some of the brightest young minds that will someday hopefully select PM as their metal-working solution”….”Earlier this Spring, after cancellation of the Montreal conferences, [MPIF] launched the complimentary MPIF Webinar Series as a member benefit to our MPIF and APMI members. This has been extremely well received by the members and has also reinforced why membership is important….For the first time in its 56-year history, the Basic PM Short Course will be held virtually as a result of the ongoing pandemic….Later this year we will also offer our PM Sintering Seminar virtually.”
Howard ended his presentation on a positive and encouraging note amid all the uncertainty of 2020. “The industry is well prepared for whatever comes our way and well-equipped to shape the future. We will improve the technology through R&D, education, and cooperative efforts, while adapting our resources to ensure that we respond in an agile manner to forces beyond our control, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
The entrepreneurial spirit embedded in PM’s DNA is still alive. Opportunities are waiting to demonstrate PM’s problem-solving advantages now and in the future.”