Table 3.

Predictive value of models based on gene expression and clinical data at inclusion.

Response~	AUC [95%CI]	pa	Sensitivity	Specificity	PPV	NPV	Accuracy
ALPL	0.589 [0.505;0.673]	0.04	0.68	0.56	0.70	0.54	0.63
DHRS13	0.613 [0.533;0.693]	0.008	0.46	0.75	0.73	0.48	0.57
HOMER3	0.604 [0.524;0.685]	0.01	0.65	0.56	0.69	0.51	0.61
DGAT2	0.634 [0.555;0.713]	0.002	0.37	0.85	0.79	0.47	0.56
WLS	0.608 [0.527;0.688]	0.01	0.56	0.67	0.72	0.50	0.60
CA4	0.622 [0.543;0.702]	0.005	0.50	0.72	0.73	0.49	0.59
ALPL*DHRS13*HOMER3 *DGAT2*WLS*CA4	0.791 [0.728;0.853]	0.77	0.77	0.68	0.78	0.66	0.73
Age+Sex+DUP+PPANSS	0.716 [0.640;0.791]	0.0001	0.74	0.67	0.77	0.63	0.71
ALPL+Age+Sex+DUP+PPANSS	0.751 [0.678;0.824]	<10−4	0.73	0.73	0.80	0.64	0.73
DHRS13+Age+Sex+DUP+PPANSS	0.740 [0.666;0.813]	<10−4	0.88	0.51	0.73	0.75	0.73
HOMER3+Age+Sex+DUP+PPANSS	0.722 [0.647;0.797]	<10−4	0.71	0.73	0.80	0.62	0.72
DGAT2+Age+Sex+DUP+PPANSS	0.743 [0.670;0.816]	<10−4	0.65	0.77	0.81	0.60	0.70
WLS+Age+Sex+DUP+PPANSS	0.738 [0.664;0.812]	<10−4	0.82	0.63	0.77	0.70	0.74
CA4+Age+Sex+DUP+PPANSS	0.741 [0.669;0.812]	<10−4	0.59	0.81	0.83	0.57	0.68
ALPL*DHRS13*HOMER3 *DGAT2*WLS*CA4+Age+Sex+DUP+PPANSS	0.938 [0.905;0.971]	0.02	0.88	0.89	0.92	0.84	0.89

AUC area under the curve, CI confidence interval, DUP duration of untreated psychosis, NPV negative predictive value, PPANSS positive PANSS score, PPV positive predictive value.

^ap values have been estimated after 10,000 permutations of the response status in 188 individuals.