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. 2020 Aug 13;20:598. doi: 10.1186/s12879-020-05323-w

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

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Fig. 3 — Estimated probability of reaching 10,000 cases as well as the reported total number of cases by each country (Stay-at-home order was assumed to reduce the reproduction number to 1.0). Reproduction number in the absence of stay-at-home order in each country was assumed to be 2. The over-dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution was (a–d) 0.10 and (e–h) 0.58 respectively. Reported total number of cases (i–l) were extracted from the World Health Organization’s situation reports.