Table 1.
Estimated number of COVID-19 cases (with 95% credible interval) imported from the 12 new epicentres in Europe and America (second column), and after excluding United Kingdom and United States from the list of epicentre countries (third column) to create a more conservative estimate (refer to Methods for more details). Note that in our estimates we only considered imported cases who had acquired infections prior to the travel ban coming into force
| Country | Estimated imported case count from 12 epicentres | Estimated imported case count from 10 epicentres |
|---|---|---|
| Algeria | 671 (489–891) | 630 (449–851) |
| Angola | 110 (48–227) | 95 (34–212) |
| Benin | 12 (6–20) | 10 (4–18) |
| Botswana | 4 (1–9) | 1 (0–4) |
| Burkina Faso | 15 (7–24) | 13 (6–22) |
| Burundi | 2 (0–7) | 2 (0–5) |
| Cabo Verde | 116 (83–173) | 55 (27–109) |
| Cameroon | 38 (25–54) | 29 (18–44) |
| Central African Republic | 3 (0–7) | 3 (0–7) |
| Chad | 3 (0–8) | 2 (0–6) |
| Comoros | 2 (0–6) | 2 (0–6) |
| Congo | 18 (9–29) | 14 (6–25) |
| Congo DRC | 22 (12–36) | 17 (8–30) |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 47 (29–68) | 39 (22–60) |
| Djibouti | 7 (2–13) | 5 (1–10) |
| Egypt | 287 (233–353) | 173 (125–231) |
| Equatorial Guinea | 12 (5–22) | 9 (3–18) |
| Eritrea | 3 (0–8) | 1 (0–4) |
| Eswatini | 0 (0–2) | 0 (0–1) |
| Ethiopia | 45 (32–61) | 20 (10–31) |
| Gabon | 16 (7–26) | 14 (6–24) |
| Gambia | 24 (14–35) | 7 (2–14) |
| Ghana | 77 (58–98) | 16 (8–26) |
| Guinea | 16 (8–25) | 13 (6–22) |
| Guinea-Bissau | 10 (3–24) | 10 (2–24) |
| Kenya | 97 (75–120) | 27 (16–41) |
| Lesotho | 0 (0–2) | 0 (0–1) |
| Liberia | 6 (2–12) | 2 (0–6) |
| Libya | 14 (4–36) | 13 (3–34) |
| Madagascar | 21 (11–34) | 19 (10–31) |
| Malawi | 7 (2–13) | 1 (0–4) |
| Mali | 23 (13–36) | 21 (11–33) |
| Mauritania | 6 (2–12) | 5 (1–11) |
| Mauritius | 122 (94–154) | 66 (44–93) |
| Mayotte | 6 (2–13) | 6 (2–13) |
| Morocco | 742 (575–959) | 555 (391–765) |
| Mozambique | 24 (11–46) | 19 (7–40) |
| Namibia | 10 (4–17) | 6 (2–12) |
| Niger | 8 (3–14) | 6 (2–13) |
| Nigeria | 160 (130–192) | 28 (17–41) |
| Rwanda | 12 (6–20) | 5 (1–11) |
| Réunion | 75 (46–114) | 74 (45–113) |
| Sao Tome and Principe | 8 (1–21) | 8 (1–20) |
| Senegal | 96 (69–129) | 83 (57–115) |
| Seychelles | 35 (23–49) | 22 (12–34) |
| Sierra Leone | 14 (7–22) | 2 (0–6) |
| Somalia | 9 (4–16) | 2 (0–6) |
| South Africa | 342 (287–404) | 119 (89–159) |
| South Sudan | 2 (0–6) | 1 (0–3) |
| Sudan | 23 (13–37) | 12 (5–24) |
| Tanzania | 58 (42–75) | 23 (13–36) |
| Togo | 11 (5–19) | 8 (3–15) |
| Tunisia | 214 (157–285) | 195 (137–264) |
| Uganda | 16 (8–25) | 7 (2–13) |
| Zambia | 15 (8–24) | 3 (0–7) |
| Zimbabwe | 30 (20–42) | 3 (0–7) |