Table 2.
Summary statistics for the estimated date by which 10,000 cases are reached in each African country. Reproduction numbers used for the simulation were 2.0 before and 1.0 after stay-at-home order came into force in each country. Estimates were derived under two scenarios, where the over-dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution was set at 0.10 (higher over-dispersion) and 0.58 (lower over-dispersion) respectively. Simulations were performed until 30th June, or 10,000 cases are reached, whichever is earlier, based on 1,000 model runs
| Country | Over-dispersion parameter = 0.10 | Over-dispersion parameter = 0.58 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 Percentile | 25 Percentile | 50 Percentile | 75 Percentile | 97.5 Percentile | 2.5 Percentile | 25 Percentile | 50 Percentile | 75 Percentile | 97.5 Percentile | |
| Algeria | 03-17 | 03-19 | 03-21 | 03-22 | 03-27 | 03-18 | 03-20 | 03-20 | 03-21 | 03-24 |
| Angola | 03-21 | 03-31 | 04-16 | 05-29 | >06-30 | 03-24 | 03-30 | 04-08 | 04-24 | 06-06 |
| Benin | 04-05 | 05-26 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-18 | 05-22 | 05-28 | 06-05 | >06-30 |
| Botswana | 05-05 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 05-26 | 06-22 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Burkina Faso | 05-20 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Burundi | 04-11 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-12 | 04-26 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Cabo Verde | 03-24 | 04-10 | 05-11 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 03-28 | 04-10 | 04-25 | 05-25 | >06-30 |
| Cameroon | 03-30 | 04-06 | 04-12 | 04-19 | >06-30 | 03-31 | 04-06 | 04-09 | 04-12 | 04-19 |
| Central African Republic | 04-07 | 05-10 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-09 | 04-20 | 04-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Chad | 04-14 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-23 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Comoros | 04-07 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-09 | 04-23 | 05-16 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Congo | 04-03 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-14 | 06-09 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Congo DRC | 04-13 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 05-07 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 03-27 | 04-03 | 04-08 | 04-13 | >06-30 | 03-30 | 04-03 | 04-06 | 04-08 | 04-16 |
| Djibouti | 05-26 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 05-30 | 06-12 | 06-27 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Egypt | 03-23 | 03-31 | 04-07 | 04-19 | 06-16 | 03-26 | 04-01 | 04-05 | 04-11 | 05-01 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 04-04 | 04-27 | 05-13 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-11 | 04-26 | 05-01 | 05-08 | >06-30 |
| Eritrea | 04-24 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 05-19 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Eswatini | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Ethiopia | 04-02 | 04-20 | 06-08 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-04 | 04-14 | 04-27 | 06-01 | >06-30 |
| Gabon | 03-30 | 04-12 | 05-16 | 06-19 | >06-30 | 04-03 | 04-10 | 04-21 | 05-14 | 06-04 |
| Gambia | 04-04 | 04-18 | 05-10 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-08 | 04-15 | 04-20 | 04-28 | >06-30 |
| Ghana | 04-02 | 04-29 | 05-08 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-09 | 04-27 | 05-03 | 05-08 | 05-22 |
| Guinea | 04-02 | 06-20 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-13 | 06-10 | 06-29 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Guinea-Bissau | 04-08 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-16 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Kenya | 03-29 | 04-08 | 04-21 | 06-28 | >06-30 | 03-31 | 04-07 | 04-13 | 04-24 | >06-30 |
| Lesotho | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Liberia | 04-16 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-19 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Libya | 04-16 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-29 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Madagascar | 04-28 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 06-19 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Malawi | 04-12 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-14 | 05-26 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Mali | 03-30 | 04-08 | 04-14 | 04-24 | >06-30 | 04-01 | 04-08 | 04-11 | 04-15 | 04-24 |
| Mauritania | 04-24 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 05-08 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Mauritius | 03-28 | 04-26 | 06-01 | 06-15 | >06-30 | 04-08 | 04-29 | 05-18 | 06-04 | 06-16 |
| Mayotte | 05-26 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Morocco | 03-16 | 03-18 | 03-20 | 03-22 | 03-29 | 03-17 | 03-19 | 03-19 | 03-21 | 03-25 |
| Mozambique | 03-29 | 04-11 | 04-24 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-01 | 04-08 | 04-15 | 04-21 | >06-30 |
| Namibia | 04-19 | 05-27 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 05-04 | 05-22 | 05-30 | 06-11 | >06-30 |
| Niger | 04-05 | 04-22 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-07 | 04-16 | 04-23 | 05-01 | >06-30 |
| Nigeria | 04-03 | 05-12 | 05-22 | 06-11 | >06-30 | 04-10 | 05-11 | 05-16 | 05-21 | 06-02 |
| Rwanda | 05-17 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 05-21 | 06-01 | 06-15 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Réunion | 03-29 | 04-24 | 05-19 | 05-28 | >06-30 | 04-06 | 04-25 | 05-13 | 05-20 | 05-28 |
| Sao Tome and Principe | 03-31 | 04-18 | 05-02 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-03 | 04-14 | 04-21 | 04-30 | >06-30 |
| Senegal | 03-25 | 04-10 | 04-27 | 06-06 | >06-30 | 03-31 | 04-11 | 04-19 | 05-04 | >06-30 |
| Seychelles | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Sierra Leone | 04-12 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-26 | 05-13 | 05-28 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Somalia | 04-15 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-18 | 04-30 | 05-19 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| South Africa | 03-24 | 04-02 | 04-13 | 05-03 | 06-18 | 03-27 | 04-02 | 04-07 | 04-14 | 05-06 |
| South Sudan | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Sudan | 04-05 | 04-16 | 05-10 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-08 | 04-15 | 04-19 | 05-01 | >06-30 |
| Tanzania | 03-30 | 04-09 | 04-15 | 04-24 | >06-30 | 04-03 | 04-08 | 04-11 | 04-15 | 04-24 |
| Togo | 04-05 | 06-23 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-11 | 05-31 | 06-25 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Tunisia | 03-21 | 03-31 | 04-08 | 04-22 | 05-27 | 03-25 | 03-31 | 04-05 | 04-12 | 05-02 |
| Uganda | 04-09 | 06-05 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-26 | 06-01 | 06-09 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Zambia | 04-09 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-12 | 05-12 | 05-31 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
| Zimbabwe | 05-03 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 06-10 | 06-28 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |