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. 2020 Aug 13;11:4049. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-17922-x

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 1 — Susceptible hosts (S) become exposed (E) and progress to presymptomatic infectious (I_P). Infected hosts can become either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic (I_A), or symptomatic (I_S). Recovery (R) or death (D) follow. The resource allocation model and the supply & demand model then have unique additional features and dynamics. A schematic of the supply & demand compartmental model is shown in Supplementary Fig. 11. For a full description of each model and the specification of dynamics between compartments, see the Supplementary Methods.